Swindon vs Tranmere stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 20. Sat, 19 Dec 2026

SwindonHome

vKick-off 15:00 UTC

TranmereAway

LLDLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDDLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

County Ground. Photo: Swindonx at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Swindon have 5 scored home results and Tranmere 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Swindon at home: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Tranmere away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Swindon scored 1.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Tranmere scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 10 pooled club appearances (70.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Swindon: 4 wins; Tranmere: 3 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Swindon at home and Tranmere away.

Swindon at home

xG 1.95

Shots per match11.0
On target per match5.0
Goals per match1.8

Tranmere away

xG 0.77

Shots per match10.4
On target per match3.2
Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Swindon: 1.13
Expected goals, Tranmere: 1.17
Most likely score: 1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals: 40%
Both clubs score: 47%
Swindon score at least once: 68%
Tranmere score at least once: 69%
Season sample: 10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Swindon win–

Draw–

Tranmere win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Swindon goals, columns are Tranmere goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

010%12%7%3%1%

111%13%8%3%1%

26%8%4%2%1%

32%3%2%1%

41%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Swindon 10 matches, Tranmere 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.4%	27.6%
2.5	43.1%	56.9%
3.5	26.7%	73.3%
4.5	10.3%	89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	31.0%	69.0%
2.5	7.8%	92.2%
3.5	1.7%	98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	61.5%	38.5%
10.5	47.1%	52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	98.1%	1.9%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	73.1%	26.9%
3.5	56.7%	43.3%
4.5	44.2%	55.8%
5.5	26.0%	74.0%
6.5	12.5%	87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Swindon wins

Draws

Tranmere wins

Goals / meeting

2.30

23 goals in 10 meetings

Both scored

60%

6 of 10 meetings

Over 1.5

70%

7 of 10 meetings

Over 2.5

50%

5 of 10 meetings

Over 3.5

20%

2 of 10 meetings

Swindon clean sheets

20%

2 of 10 meetings

Tranmere clean sheets

30%

3 of 10 meetings

Corners / meeting

10.30

10 with corner data

Cards / meeting

3.40

10 with card data

Tranmere v SwindonSat, 21 Mar 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-260–1HT 0–0
Swindon v TranmereSat, 8 Nov 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-262–1HT 0–0
Swindon v TranmereTue, 28 Jan 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-253–1HT 0–1
Tranmere v SwindonTue, 1 Oct 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-251–1HT 1–0
Swindon v TranmereTue, 27 Feb 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-243–1HT 2–1
Tranmere v SwindonSat, 23 Dec 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-242–1HT 0–1
Tranmere v SwindonMon, 10 Apr 2023 · EFL League Two 2022-231–0HT 1–0
Swindon v TranmereSat, 12 Nov 2022 · EFL League Two 2022-231–1HT 1–1
Tranmere v SwindonTue, 8 Feb 2022 · EFL League Two 2021-223–0HT 1–0
Swindon v TranmereTue, 17 Aug 2021 · EFL League Two 2021-220–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Swindon at homeWWLLDL

Sat, 10 Octv Crewe0–1C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 26 Septv Accrington1–1C 6–7 · Y 1–1
Tue, 22 Septv Newport County0–2C ––– · Y –––
Tue, 15 Septv Crystal Palace U211–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 5 Septv Colchester3–1C 4–6 · Y 2–0
Tue, 1 Septv Port Vale3–1C 10–4 · Y 1–1

Tranmere awayLDDLDL

Sat, 3 Oct@ Chesterfield2–4C 1–12 · Y 3–3
Sat, 19 Sept@ Exeter0–0C 2–6 · Y 3–2
Sat, 12 Sept@ Gillingham0–2C 5–5 · Y 2–3
Sat, 29 Aug@ Newport County2–2C 6–4 · Y 2–2
Sat, 22 Aug@ Port Vale1–1C 3–4 · Y 3–2
Sat, 25 Apr@ Milton Keynes Dons0–3C 2–6 · Y 2–0

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Swindon at home, Tranmere away

70%
Both teams scored
League 53%
5 + 5 matches
90%
Over 0.5 goals
League 91%
5 + 5 matches
80%
Over 1.5 goals
League 73%
5 + 5 matches
50%
Over 2.5 goals
League 43%
5 + 5 matches
40%
Over 3.5 goals
League 26%
5 + 5 matches
10%
Over 4.5 goals
League 10%
5 + 5 matches
2.8
Avg total goals
League 2.48
5 + 5 matches
70%
1st half over 0.5
League 66%
5 + 5 matches
20%
1st half over 1.5
League 31%
5 + 5 matches
10.3
Corners per match
League 10.11
4 + 5 matches
68%
Corners over 8.5
League 66%
4 + 5 matches
68%
Corners over 9.5
League 62%
4 + 5 matches
35%
Corners over 10.5
League 47%
4 + 5 matches
3.5
Cards per match
League 4.09
4 + 5 matches
50%
Cards over 3.5
League 57%
4 + 5 matches
40%
Cards over 4.5
League 44%
4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Swindon at home, Tranmere away

Swindon (home)		Tranmere (away)
17	Position	13
WWWDL	Last 5, oldest to newest	DDLDL
5	Played	5
2.00	Points per match	0.60
60%	Win %	0%
1.80	Scored / match	1.00
1.00	Conceded / match	1.80
2.80	Avg total goals	2.80
80%	Both scored	60%
0%	Clean sheets	20%
20%	Failed to score	40%
1.95	xG for	0.77
1.19	xG against	1.47

Half by half

SwindonTranmere

0.601st half scored / match0.00
0.601st half conceded / match0.60
1.202nd half scored / match1.00
0.402nd half conceded / match1.20
20%Leading at half-time0%
80%1st half over 0.560%
40%1st half over 1.50%
80%2nd half over 0.580%
60%2nd half over 1.560%
40%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Swindon at home, Tranmere away, this season.

Goals

SwindonTranmere

1.80Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match1.80
2.80Match total / match2.80
80%Scored 1+60%
60%Scored 2+40%
100%Conceded 1+80%
0%Conceded 2+60%
80%Match over 1.580%
60%Match over 2.540%
40%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

SwindonTranmere

11.00Shots for10.40
13.00Shots against13.00
5.00On target for3.20
4.50On target against5.20
21%Shot conversion10%
1.95xG for0.77
1.19xG against1.47

Corners

SwindonTranmere

5.50Corners for3.40
5.50Corners against6.20
11.00Match total9.60
75%Over 7.580%
75%Over 8.560%
75%Over 9.560%
50%Over 10.520%
50%Over 11.520%

Cards

SwindonTranmere

1.25Cards for2.60
0.75Cards against2.40
2.00Match total5.00
0%Over 2.5100%
0%Over 3.5100%
0%Over 4.580%
0%Over 5.520%
7.75Fouls committed12.20

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
11	Grimsby	10	2	13
12	Newport County	10	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	0	12
14	Exeter	10	0	12
15	Accrington	10	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	-1	11
17	Swindon	10	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	-3	10

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.