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Tarbes Pyrénées Football v Chateaubriant, National 1, Sat, 13 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 17. Sat, 13 Feb 2027

Tarbes Pyrénées FootballHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
ChateaubriantAway
WDLWDLeague form, oldest to newestDDLDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tarbes Pyrénées Football have 3 scored home results and Chateaubriant 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tarbes Pyrénées Football at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Chateaubriant away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tarbes Pyrénées Football scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Chateaubriant scored 0.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.18 per club appearance across 286 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Tarbes Pyrénées Football: 0 wins; Chateaubriant: 0 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 143 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tarbes Pyrénées Football
0.73
Expected goals, Chateaubriant
0.14
Most likely score
0-0 (42%)
Three or more goals
6%
Both clubs score
7%
Tarbes Pyrénées Football score at least once
52%
Chateaubriant score at least once
13%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tarbes Pyrénées Football win–
Draw–
Chateaubriant win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tarbes Pyrénées Football goals, columns are Chateaubriant goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
042%6%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
131%4%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.22 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Tarbes Pyrénées Football 6 matches, Chateaubriant 6, the league 143, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.566.2%33.8%
2.544.1%55.9%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.57.6%92.4%

First-half goals · 142 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.0%34.0%
1.531.3%68.8%
2.59.7%90.3%
3.53.5%96.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Tarbes Pyrénées Football wins
1
Draws
0
Chateaubriant wins
Goals / meeting
0.00
0 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Tarbes Pyrénées Football clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Chateaubriant clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Chateaubriant v Tarbes Pyrénées FootballSat, 5 Sept 2026 · National 1 2026-270–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tarbes Pyrénées Football at homeWLD
Chateaubriant awayDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tarbes Pyrénées Football at home, Chateaubriant away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 50%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 87%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 44%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 7%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 1.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.36
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tarbes Pyrénées Football at home, Chateaubriant away
Tarbes Pyrénées Football (home)Chateaubriant (away)
22Position45
WLDLast 5, oldest to newestDLL
3Played3
1.33Points per match0.33
33%Win %0%
0.67Scored / match0.33
0.67Conceded / match1.67
1.33Avg total goals2.00
33%Both scored33%
67%Clean sheets33%
33%Failed to score67%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Tarbes Pyrénées FootballChateaubriant
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.332nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 33%Leading at half-time0%
  • 33%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tarbes Pyrénées Football at home, Chateaubriant away, this season.

Goals

Tarbes Pyrénées FootballChateaubriant
  • 0.67Scored / match0.33
  • 0.67Conceded / match1.67
  • 1.33Match total / match2.00
  • 67%Scored 1+33%
  • 0%Scored 2+0%
  • 33%Conceded 1+67%
  • 33%Conceded 2+67%
  • 33%Match over 1.567%
  • 33%Match over 2.567%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.