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MatchDaySync

Tochigi SC v Thespa Gunma, J3 League, Sat, 15 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 37. Sat, 15 May 2027

Tochigi SCHome
vKick-off 10:00 UTC
Thespa GunmaAway
DLLDLLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tochigi SC have 5 scored home results and Thespa Gunma 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tochigi SC at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Thespa Gunma away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tochigi SC scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Thespa Gunma scored 0.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.47 per club appearance across 192 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 96 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tochigi SC
1.53
Expected goals, Thespa Gunma
0.93
Most likely score
1-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
45%
Both clubs score
48%
Tochigi SC score at least once
78%
Thespa Gunma score at least once
61%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tochigi SC win–
Draw–
Thespa Gunma win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tochigi SC goals, columns are Thespa Gunma goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%12%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.59 goals) and away average (1.35 goals).

Sample. Tochigi SC 10 matches, Thespa Gunma 10, the league 96, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.5%26.5%
2.558.2%41.8%
3.537.8%62.2%
4.521.4%78.6%

First-half goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.3%35.7%
1.534.7%65.3%
2.512.2%87.8%
3.53.1%96.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tochigi SC at homeWDWLLL
Thespa Gunma awayLWLWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tochigi SC at home, Thespa Gunma away
  • 55%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 58%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.95
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tochigi SC at home, Thespa Gunma away
Tochigi SC (home)Thespa Gunma (away)
15Position17
WDWLLLast 5, oldest to newestLWLL
5Played4
1.40Points per match0.75
40%Win %25%
1.60Scored / match0.75
1.40Conceded / match1.75
3.00Avg total goals2.50
60%Both scored50%
20%Clean sheets0%
20%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Tochigi SCThespa Gunma
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.25
  • 0.401st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.202nd half scored / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 20%Leading at half-time25%
  • 60%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 20%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 40%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tochigi SC at home, Thespa Gunma away, this season.

Goals

Tochigi SCThespa Gunma
  • 1.60Scored / match0.75
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.75
  • 3.00Match total / match2.50
  • 80%Scored 1+50%
  • 60%Scored 2+25%
  • 80%Conceded 1+100%
  • 60%Conceded 2+50%
  • 80%Match over 1.575%
  • 60%Match over 2.550%
  • 40%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J3 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.