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Torquay v Chelmsford City, National League South, Sat, 28 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sat, 28 Nov 2026

TorquayHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Chelmsford CityAway
WWDLWLeague form, oldest to newestDDDDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Torquay have 6 scored home results and Chelmsford City 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Torquay at home: 1.67 points per match (6 measured matches); Chelmsford City away: 1.33 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Torquay scored 2.00 per home match (6 measured matches); Chelmsford City scored 2.00 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.41 per club appearance across 256 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 10 of 12 pooled club appearances (83.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 128 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Torquay
0.92
Expected goals, Chelmsford City
1.38
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
40%
Both clubs score
45%
Torquay score at least once
60%
Chelmsford City score at least once
75%
Season sample
11 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Torquay win–
Draw–
Chelmsford City win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Torquay goals, columns are Chelmsford City goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%14%10%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.38 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Torquay 11 matches, Chelmsford City 10, the league 128, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.548.5%51.5%
3.530.8%69.2%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.1%26.9%
1.539.2%60.8%
2.514.6%85.4%
3.55.4%94.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Torquay at homeDDWDWW
Chelmsford City awayDDDWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Torquay at home, Chelmsford City away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 48%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 30%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 33%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.81
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Torquay at home, Chelmsford City away
Torquay (home)Chelmsford City (away)
11Position13
DDWDWLast 5, oldest to newestDDDDW
6Played6
1.67Points per match1.33
33%Win %17%
2.00Scored / match2.00
1.17Conceded / match1.17
3.17Avg total goals3.17
83%Both scored83%
17%Clean sheets17%
17%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

TorquayChelmsford City
  • 0.831st half scored / match1.67
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.33
  • 1.172nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.832nd half conceded / match0.83
  • 33%Leading at half-time67%
  • 67%1st half over 0.567%
  • 50%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.583%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Torquay at home, Chelmsford City away, this season.

Goals

TorquayChelmsford City
  • 2.00Scored / match2.00
  • 1.17Conceded / match1.17
  • 3.17Match total / match3.17
  • 83%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+33%
  • 83%Conceded 1+83%
  • 33%Conceded 2+17%
  • 83%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.533%
  • 50%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Dorking11617
10Farnham Town11117
11Torquay11316
12Ebbsfleet7615
13Chelmsford City10614
14Hemel Hempstead11014
15Folkestone Invicta11313
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League South matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.