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Toulouse v Strasbourg, Ligue 1, Fri, 6 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 10. Fri, 6 Nov 2026

ToulouseHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
StrasbourgAway
DLDWDLeague form, oldest to newestLWWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadium Municipal. Photo: Luc-Éric Manneville Lucio fr, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Toulouse have 3 scored home results and Strasbourg 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Toulouse at home: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Strasbourg away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Toulouse scored 1.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Strasbourg scored 2.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 102 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Toulouse: 3 wins; Strasbourg: 5 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Toulouse at home and Strasbourg away.

Toulouse at home

xG 2.71
  • Shots per match18.3
  • On target per match5.7
  • Goals per match1.0

Strasbourg away

xG 1.13
  • Shots per match9.7
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match2.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 51 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Toulouse
2.38
Expected goals, Strasbourg
2.18
Most likely score
2-2 (7%)
Three or more goals
83%
Both clubs score
80%
Toulouse score at least once
91%
Strasbourg score at least once
89%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Toulouse win–
Draw–
Strasbourg win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns are Strasbourg goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%2%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
13%5%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
23%6%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
32%5%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
41%3%3%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.65 goals) and away average (1.24 goals).

Sample. Toulouse 6 matches, Strasbourg 5, the league 51, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.5%24.5%
2.560.4%39.6%
3.535.8%64.2%
4.513.2%86.8%

First-half goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.8%30.2%
1.534.0%66.0%
2.515.1%84.9%
3.53.8%96.2%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.8%36.2%
9.555.3%44.7%
10.540.4%59.6%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.585.1%14.9%
2.561.7%38.3%
3.546.8%53.2%
4.525.5%74.5%
5.510.6%89.4%
6.52.1%97.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Toulouse wins
2
Draws
5
Strasbourg wins
Goals / meeting
2.60
26 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Toulouse clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Strasbourg clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
7.20
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.60
10 with card data
  1. Strasbourg v ToulouseSun, 3 May 2026 · Ligue 1 2025-261–2HT 1–1
  2. Toulouse v StrasbourgSat, 6 Dec 2025 · Ligue 1 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  3. Strasbourg v ToulouseSun, 16 Mar 2025 · Ligue 1 2024-252–1HT 0–1
  4. Toulouse v StrasbourgSun, 12 Jan 2025 · Ligue 1 2024-251–2HT 1–2
  5. Toulouse v StrasbourgSun, 7 Apr 2024 · Ligue 1 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  6. Strasbourg v ToulouseSun, 27 Aug 2023 · Ligue 1 2023-242–0HT 0–0
  7. Strasbourg v ToulouseSun, 29 Jan 2023 · Ligue 1 2022-231–2HT 1–1
  8. Toulouse v StrasbourgSun, 23 Oct 2022 · Ligue 1 2022-232–2HT 1–0
  9. Toulouse v StrasbourgWed, 5 Feb 2020 · Ligue 1 2019-200–1HT 0–0
  10. Strasbourg v ToulouseSat, 7 Dec 2019 · Ligue 1 2019-204–2HT 2–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Toulouse at homeDWLLLW
Strasbourg awayDWLWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Toulouse at home, Strasbourg away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 35%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 8.8
    Corners per match
    League 9.62
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 56%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 40%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.2
    Cards per match
    League 3.27
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Toulouse at home, Strasbourg away
Toulouse (home)Strasbourg (away)
13Position10
LLWLast 5, oldest to newestLWL
3Played3
1.00Points per match1.00
33%Win %33%
1.00Scored / match2.33
1.67Conceded / match2.67
2.67Avg total goals5.00
33%Both scored67%
0%Clean sheets0%
67%Failed to score33%
2.71xG for1.13
1.37xG against1.95

Half by half

ToulouseStrasbourg
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half scored / match1.67
  • 1.672nd half conceded / match2.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 0%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Toulouse at home, Strasbourg away, this season.

Goals

ToulouseStrasbourg
  • 1.00Scored / match2.33
  • 1.67Conceded / match2.67
  • 2.67Match total / match5.00
  • 33%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+100%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 33%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

ToulouseStrasbourg
  • 18.33Shots for9.67
  • 13.00Shots against19.33
  • 5.67On target for5.00
  • 5.33On target against7.00
  • 6%Shot conversion24%
  • 2.71xG for1.13
  • 1.37xG against1.95

Corners

ToulouseStrasbourg
  • 6.00Corners for1.33
  • 4.67Corners against5.67
  • 10.67Match total7.00
  • 100%Over 7.533%
  • 67%Over 8.533%
  • 67%Over 9.533%
  • 67%Over 10.533%
  • 33%Over 11.50%

Cards

ToulouseStrasbourg
  • 1.67Cards for2.00
  • 1.00Cards against1.67
  • 2.67Match total3.67
  • 67%Over 2.567%
  • 33%Over 3.567%
  • 0%Over 4.533%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 16.00Fouls committed13.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
8Lorient608
9Lens617
10Strasbourg507
11Angers6-37
12Le Mans6-26
13Toulouse6-26
14Auxerre5-56
15Nice5-35
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.