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Tranmere v Accrington, EFL League Two, Sat, 26 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 21. Sat, 26 Dec 2026

TranmereHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
AccringtonAway
LDDLDLeague form, oldest to newestLDDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tranmere have 5 scored home results and Accrington 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tranmere at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Accrington away: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tranmere scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Accrington scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 10 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Tranmere: 2 wins; Accrington: 3 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Tranmere at home and Accrington away.

Tranmere at home

xG 1.47
  • Shots per match12.3
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.6

Accrington away

xG 1.26
  • Shots per match14.0
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tranmere
1.76
Expected goals, Accrington
1.09
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
54%
Both clubs score
55%
Tranmere score at least once
83%
Accrington score at least once
66%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tranmere win–
Draw–
Accrington win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tranmere goals, columns are Accrington goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%10%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Tranmere 10 matches, Accrington 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Tranmere wins
3
Draws
3
Accrington wins
Goals / meeting
2.75
22 goals in 8 meetings
Both scored
63%
5 of 8 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
6 of 8 meetings
Over 2.5
38%
3 of 8 meetings
Over 3.5
25%
2 of 8 meetings
Tranmere clean sheets
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Accrington clean sheets
25%
2 of 8 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.75
8 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.75
8 with card data
  1. Tranmere v AccringtonTue, 17 Feb 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-260–1HT 0–0
  2. Accrington v TranmereTue, 28 Oct 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Accrington v TranmereSat, 12 Apr 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-253–3HT 3–0
  4. Tranmere v AccringtonTue, 25 Feb 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  5. Accrington v TranmereSat, 27 Apr 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-244–1HT 1–1
  6. Tranmere v AccringtonSat, 23 Sept 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-242–0HT 1–0
  7. Accrington v TranmereSat, 7 Mar 2020 · EFL League One 2019-201–2HT 0–1
  8. Tranmere v AccringtonSat, 7 Dec 2019 · EFL League One 2019-201–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tranmere at homeWDWWDD
Accrington awayLLLLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tranmere at home, Accrington away
  • 60%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 9.8
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 5.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tranmere at home, Accrington away
Tranmere (home)Accrington (away)
13Position15
WDWDDLast 5, oldest to newestLLLDD
5Played5
1.80Points per match0.40
40%Win %0%
1.60Scored / match0.80
0.80Conceded / match1.60
2.40Avg total goals2.40
60%Both scored60%
40%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score40%
1.47xG for1.26
1.59xG against1.89

Half by half

TranmereAccrington
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.20
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 80%Leading at half-time20%
  • 80%1st half over 0.580%
  • 0%1st half over 1.560%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.540%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 60%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tranmere at home, Accrington away, this season.

Goals

TranmereAccrington
  • 1.60Scored / match0.80
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.60
  • 2.40Match total / match2.40
  • 100%Scored 1+60%
  • 60%Scored 2+20%
  • 60%Conceded 1+80%
  • 20%Conceded 2+60%
  • 100%Match over 1.580%
  • 20%Match over 2.540%
  • 20%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

TranmereAccrington
  • 12.25Shots for14.00
  • 14.50Shots against15.25
  • 5.75On target for3.50
  • 4.00On target against5.00
  • 14%Shot conversion7%
  • 1.47xG for1.26
  • 1.59xG against1.89

Corners

TranmereAccrington
  • 3.25Corners for4.00
  • 6.00Corners against6.25
  • 9.25Match total10.25
  • 75%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.575%
  • 50%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.525%
  • 25%Over 11.525%

Cards

TranmereAccrington
  • 2.50Cards for3.25
  • 2.25Cards against2.00
  • 4.75Match total5.25
  • 100%Over 2.575%
  • 75%Over 3.575%
  • 75%Over 4.575%
  • 25%Over 5.550%
  • 11.00Fouls committed13.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Grimsby10213
12Newport County10113
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.