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Udinese v Fiorentina, Serie A, Sun, 29 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 13. Sun, 29 Nov 2026

UdineseHome
vKick-off 11:30 UTC
FiorentinaAway
DWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Friuli. Photo: Matteo.favi, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Udinese have 3 scored home results and Fiorentina 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Udinese at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Fiorentina away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Udinese scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Fiorentina scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Udinese: 4 wins; Fiorentina: 5 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Udinese at home and Fiorentina away.

Udinese at home

xG 1.68
  • Shots per match17.7
  • On target per match4.7
  • Goals per match0.7

Fiorentina away

xG 1.80
  • Shots per match14.0
  • On target per match7.0
  • Goals per match1.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Udinese
2.74
Expected goals, Fiorentina
1.65
Most likely score
2-1 (8%)
Three or more goals
81%
Both clubs score
76%
Udinese score at least once
93%
Fiorentina score at least once
81%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Udinese win–
Draw–
Fiorentina win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Udinese goals, columns are Fiorentina goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
13%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%8%6%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%7%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Udinese 5 matches, Fiorentina 6, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Udinese wins
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina wins
Goals / meeting
3.10
31 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Udinese clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Fiorentina clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.20
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.90
10 with card data
  1. Udinese v FiorentinaMon, 2 Mar 2026 · Serie A 2025-263–0HT 1–0
  2. Fiorentina v UdineseSun, 21 Dec 2025 · Serie A 2025-265–1HT 3–0
  3. Udinese v FiorentinaSun, 25 May 2025 · Serie A 2024-252–3HT 1–0
  4. Fiorentina v UdineseMon, 23 Dec 2024 · Serie A 2024-251–2HT 1–0
  5. Fiorentina v UdineseSun, 14 Jan 2024 · Serie A 2023-242–2HT 0–1
  6. Udinese v FiorentinaSun, 24 Sept 2023 · Serie A 2023-240–2HT 0–1
  7. Fiorentina v UdineseSun, 14 May 2023 · Serie A 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  8. Udinese v FiorentinaWed, 31 Aug 2022 · Serie A 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  9. Fiorentina v UdineseWed, 27 Apr 2022 · Serie A 2021-220–4HT 0–2
  10. Udinese v FiorentinaSun, 26 Sept 2021 · Serie A 2021-220–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Udinese at homeLWDWLL
Fiorentina awayDLWLWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Udinese at home, Fiorentina away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 9.1
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.6
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Udinese at home, Fiorentina away
Udinese (home)Fiorentina (away)
13Position18
DLLLast 5, oldest to newestLWL
3Played3
0.33Points per match1.00
0%Win %33%
0.67Scored / match1.67
1.33Conceded / match2.67
2.00Avg total goals4.33
67%Both scored67%
0%Clean sheets0%
33%Failed to score33%
1.68xG for1.80
1.50xG against1.66

Half by half

UdineseFiorentina
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.33
  • 0.332nd half scored / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match1.33
  • 33%Leading at half-time33%
  • 33%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Udinese at home, Fiorentina away, this season.

Goals

UdineseFiorentina
  • 0.67Scored / match1.67
  • 1.33Conceded / match2.67
  • 2.00Match total / match4.33
  • 67%Scored 1+67%
  • 0%Scored 2+33%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+100%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 0%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

UdineseFiorentina
  • 17.67Shots for14.00
  • 14.67Shots against13.50
  • 4.67On target for7.00
  • 4.67On target against5.50
  • 4%Shot conversion14%
  • 1.68xG for1.80
  • 1.50xG against1.66

Corners

UdineseFiorentina
  • 6.33Corners for3.50
  • 6.33Corners against2.00
  • 12.67Match total5.50
  • 100%Over 7.50%
  • 100%Over 8.50%
  • 100%Over 9.50%
  • 67%Over 10.50%
  • 33%Over 11.50%

Cards

UdineseFiorentina
  • 3.33Cards for1.50
  • 0.33Cards against2.00
  • 3.67Match total3.50
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 33%Over 3.550%
  • 33%Over 4.50%
  • 33%Over 5.50%
  • 12.00Fouls committed8.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Atalanta5-26
12Lecce5-56
13Udinese5-34
14Torino5-34
15Monza5-44
16Genoa6-64
17Parma6-64
18Fiorentina6-74
19Bologna5-32
20Venezia5-90
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.