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Ufa v Rotor Volgograd, First League, Fri, 30 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Fri, 30 Apr 2027

UfaHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
Rotor VolgogradAway
WDDLDLeague form, oldest to newestLDWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ufa have 7 scored home results and Rotor Volgograd 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ufa at home: 1.86 points per match (7 measured matches); Rotor Volgograd away: 1.00 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ufa scored 1.57 per home match (7 measured matches); Rotor Volgograd scored 1.43 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.37 per club appearance across 234 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 14 pooled club appearances (57.1%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 117 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ufa
1.33
Expected goals, Rotor Volgograd
1.20
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
46%
Both clubs score
51%
Ufa score at least once
73%
Rotor Volgograd score at least once
70%
Season sample
12 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ufa win–
Draw–
Rotor Volgograd win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ufa goals, columns are Rotor Volgograd goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%10%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%13%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.51 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Ufa 12 matches, Rotor Volgograd 13, the league 117, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 117 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.8%25.2%
2.553.8%46.2%
3.532.8%67.2%
4.513.4%86.6%

First-half goals · 117 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.4%33.6%
1.537.0%63.0%
2.511.8%88.2%
3.54.2%95.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ufa at homeWDWDDD
Rotor Volgograd awayLLLDLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ufa at home, Rotor Volgograd away
  • 57%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 93%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 79%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 29%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 32%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.74
    7 + 7 matches
  • 64%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 36%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    7 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ufa at home, Rotor Volgograd away
Ufa (home)Rotor Volgograd (away)
9Position8
DWDDDLast 5, oldest to newestLLLDW
7Played7
1.86Points per match1.00
43%Win %29%
1.57Scored / match1.43
0.71Conceded / match1.57
2.29Avg total goals3.00
57%Both scored57%
43%Clean sheets29%
14%Failed to score14%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

UfaRotor Volgograd
  • 0.571st half scored / match0.86
  • 0.141st half conceded / match0.86
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.57
  • 0.572nd half conceded / match0.71
  • 29%Leading at half-time43%
  • 43%1st half over 0.586%
  • 29%1st half over 1.543%
  • 57%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.529%
  • 14%Scored in both halves43%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ufa at home, Rotor Volgograd away, this season.

Goals

UfaRotor Volgograd
  • 1.57Scored / match1.43
  • 0.71Conceded / match1.57
  • 2.29Match total / match3.00
  • 86%Scored 1+86%
  • 43%Scored 2+57%
  • 57%Conceded 1+71%
  • 14%Conceded 2+57%
  • 71%Match over 1.586%
  • 43%Match over 2.557%
  • 29%Match over 3.529%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
6Sochi12723
7Shinnik Yaroslavl13419
8Rotor Volgograd13618
9Ufa12318
10Arsenal Tula13-916
11Volga Ulyanovsk14-315
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for First League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.