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University of Pretoria FC v Lerumo Lions, Motsepe Foundation Championship, Sat, 17 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 27. Sat, 17 Apr 2027

University of Pretoria FCHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
Lerumo LionsAway
LWDDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, University of Pretoria FC have 3 scored home results and Lerumo Lions 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: University of Pretoria FC at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Lerumo Lions away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. University of Pretoria FC scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Lerumo Lions scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 0.95 per club appearance across 92 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 46 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, University of Pretoria FC
1.06
Expected goals, Lerumo Lions
1.02
Most likely score
1-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
35%
Both clubs score
42%
University of Pretoria FC score at least once
65%
Lerumo Lions score at least once
64%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

University of Pretoria FC win–
Draw–
Lerumo Lions win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are University of Pretoria FC goals, columns are Lerumo Lions goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%13%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%14%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (0.98 goals) and away average (0.91 goals).

Sample. University of Pretoria FC 6 matches, Lerumo Lions 6, the league 46, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 18 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 46 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.554.2%45.8%
2.525.0%75.0%
3.514.6%85.4%
4.58.3%91.7%

First-half goals · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
University of Pretoria FC at homeLLDW
Lerumo Lions awayLDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 37%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 89%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 54%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 24%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 8%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 13%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 8%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 7%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 1.89
    6 + 6 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 18%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
University of Pretoria FCLerumo Lions
9Position10
LWDDWLast 5, oldest to newestWWLLD
6Played6
1.33Points per match1.33
33%Win %33%
1.17Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match0.83
2.17Avg total goals1.83
17%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets17%
50%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

University of Pretoria FCLerumo Lions
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.801st half conceded / match0.20
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 40%Leading at half-time40%
  • 80%1st half over 0.560%
  • 40%1st half over 1.50%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 60%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

University of Pretoria FCLerumo Lions
  • 1.17Scored / match1.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match0.83
  • 2.17Match total / match1.83
  • 50%Scored 1+67%
  • 50%Scored 2+33%
  • 50%Conceded 1+83%
  • 33%Conceded 2+0%
  • 67%Match over 1.567%
  • 17%Match over 2.517%
  • 17%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Motsepe Foundation Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.