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Vasco v Corinthians, Brasileirão Série A, Sat, 24 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 32. Sat, 24 Oct 2026

VascoHome
vKick-off 21:30 UTC
CorinthiansAway
LWWWDLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Vasco have 15 scored home results and Corinthians 14 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Vasco at home: 1.60 points per match (15 measured matches); Corinthians away: 1.00 points per match (14 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Vasco scored 1.40 per home match (15 measured matches); Corinthians scored 1.07 away (14). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 582 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 18 of 29 pooled club appearances (62.1%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Vasco: 1 wins; Corinthians: 8 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 291 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Vasco
1.26
Expected goals, Corinthians
0.96
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
38%
Both clubs score
44%
Vasco score at least once
71%
Corinthians score at least once
62%
Season sample
29 and 29 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Vasco win–
Draw–
Corinthians win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Vasco goals, columns are Corinthians goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.53 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Vasco 29 matches, Corinthians 29, the league 291, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 291 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.2%21.8%
2.551.9%48.1%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.511.9%88.1%

First-half goals · 288 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.8%25.2%
1.533.8%66.2%
2.58.6%91.4%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Vasco wins
1
Draws
8
Corinthians wins
Goals / meeting
2.90
29 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Vasco clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corinthians clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Corinthians v VascoSun, 26 Apr 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20261–0HT 1–0
  2. Vasco v CorinthiansSun, 24 Aug 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20252–3
  3. Corinthians v VascoSat, 5 Apr 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20253–0
  4. Corinthians v VascoSun, 24 Nov 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20243–1
  5. Vasco v CorinthiansWed, 10 Jul 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20242–0
  6. Vasco v CorinthiansWed, 29 Nov 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20232–4
  7. Corinthians v VascoSat, 29 Jul 2023 · Brasileirão Série A 20233–1
  8. Corinthians v VascoSun, 21 Feb 2021 · Brasileirão Série A 20200–0
  9. Vasco v CorinthiansThu, 22 Oct 2020 · Brasileirão Série A 20201–2
  10. Corinthians v VascoSun, 29 Sept 2019 · Brasileirão Série A 20191–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Vasco at homeLWWWWD
Corinthians awayWDLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Vasco at home, Corinthians away
  • 62%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 76%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 78%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 21%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    15 + 14 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    14 + 14 matches
  • 29%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    14 + 14 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Vasco at home, Corinthians away
Vasco (home)Corinthians (away)
14Position16
DLWWDLast 5, oldest to newestDWLLL
15Played14
1.60Points per match1.00
47%Win %21%
1.40Scored / match1.07
1.20Conceded / match1.29
2.60Avg total goals2.36
53%Both scored71%
20%Clean sheets29%
33%Failed to score14%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

VascoCorinthians
  • 0.431st half scored / match0.36
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.86
  • 1.072nd half scored / match0.71
  • 0.712nd half conceded / match0.43
  • 29%Leading at half-time7%
  • 71%1st half over 0.571%
  • 14%1st half over 1.543%
  • 71%2nd half over 0.564%
  • 64%2nd half over 1.543%
  • 14%Scored in both halves7%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Vasco at home, Corinthians away, this season.

Goals

VascoCorinthians
  • 1.40Scored / match1.07
  • 1.20Conceded / match1.29
  • 2.60Match total / match2.36
  • 67%Scored 1+86%
  • 40%Scored 2+14%
  • 80%Conceded 1+71%
  • 27%Conceded 2+43%
  • 73%Match over 1.579%
  • 60%Match over 2.550%
  • 20%Match over 3.521%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
12Vitoria30-1136
13Botafogo RJ29-535
14Vasco29-635
15Mirassol29-933
16Corinthians29-432
17Internacional29-531
18Gremio29-830
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Brasileirão Série A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.