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VfB 03 Hilden v Bonner SC, Regionalliga West, Sat, 17 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Sat, 17 Apr 2027

VfB 03 HildenHome
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
Bonner SCAway
WLLWWLeague form, oldest to newestWDWDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, VfB 03 Hilden have 6 scored home results and Bonner SC 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: VfB 03 Hilden at home: 1.17 points per match (6 measured matches); Bonner SC away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. VfB 03 Hilden scored 1.33 per home match (6 measured matches); Bonner SC scored 1.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.75 per club appearance across 202 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 10 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 101 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, VfB 03 Hilden
1.39
Expected goals, Bonner SC
2.17
Most likely score
1-2 (9%)
Three or more goals
69%
Both clubs score
67%
VfB 03 Hilden score at least once
75%
Bonner SC score at least once
89%
Season sample
12 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

VfB 03 Hilden win–
Draw–
Bonner SC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are VfB 03 Hilden goals, columns are Bonner SC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%6%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
14%9%9%7%4%2%1%under 1%
23%6%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
31%3%3%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.67 goals) and away average (1.83 goals).

Sample. VfB 03 Hilden 12 matches, Bonner SC 10, the league 101, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 24 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.587.4%12.6%
2.569.9%30.1%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.529.1%70.9%

First-half goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.7%24.3%
1.555.3%44.7%
2.518.4%81.6%
3.58.7%91.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
VfB 03 Hilden at homeDWLLLW
Bonner SC awayLDDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
VfB 03 Hilden at home, Bonner SC away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 72%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 88%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 70%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 29%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 49%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 29%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 29%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 3.50
    6 + 4 matches
  • 92%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 55%
    6 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
VfB 03 Hilden at home, Bonner SC away
VfB 03 Hilden (home)Bonner SC (away)
9Position10
WLLLWLast 5, oldest to newestLDDD
6Played4
1.17Points per match0.75
33%Win %0%
1.33Scored / match1.50
1.83Conceded / match1.75
3.17Avg total goals3.25
33%Both scored100%
33%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

VfB 03 HildenBonner SC
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.75
  • 1.171st half conceded / match0.75
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 17%Leading at half-time50%
  • 83%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 50%1st half over 1.525%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 50%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

VfB 03 Hilden at home, Bonner SC away, this season.

Goals

VfB 03 HildenBonner SC
  • 1.33Scored / match1.50
  • 1.83Conceded / match1.75
  • 3.17Match total / match3.25
  • 50%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+25%
  • 67%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+50%
  • 83%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.550%
  • 33%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Regionalliga West matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.