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Vitoria v Bragantino, Brasileirão Série A, Wed, 18 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 35. Wed, 18 Nov 2026

VitoriaHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
BragantinoAway
WDLWLLeague form, oldest to newestLDLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Vitoria have 15 scored home results and Bragantino 15 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Vitoria at home: 2.07 points per match (15 measured matches); Bragantino away: 1.07 points per match (15 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Vitoria scored 1.47 per home match (15 measured matches); Bragantino scored 0.93 away (15). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 582 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 11 of 30 pooled club appearances (36.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Vitoria: 2 wins; Bragantino: 3 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 291 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Vitoria
1.08
Expected goals, Bragantino
1.10
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
44%
Vitoria score at least once
66%
Bragantino score at least once
67%
Season sample
30 and 29 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Vitoria win–
Draw–
Bragantino win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Vitoria goals, columns are Bragantino goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%12%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.53 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Vitoria 30 matches, Bragantino 29, the league 291, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 291 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.2%21.8%
2.551.9%48.1%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.511.9%88.1%

First-half goals · 288 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.8%25.2%
1.533.8%66.2%
2.58.6%91.4%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Vitoria wins
0
Draws
3
Bragantino wins
Goals / meeting
2.20
11 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Vitoria clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Bragantino clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Bragantino v VitoriaSun, 17 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20262–0HT 1–0
  2. Bragantino v VitoriaWed, 3 Dec 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20254–0
  3. Vitoria v BragantinoSun, 20 Jul 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20251–0
  4. Vitoria v BragantinoSat, 19 Oct 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20241–0
  5. Bragantino v VitoriaSun, 23 Jun 2024 · Brasileirão Série A 20242–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Vitoria at homeWLLWLW
Bragantino awayDDLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Vitoria at home, Bragantino away
  • 37%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 97%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 73%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 78%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 3%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    15 + 15 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    15 + 15 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Vitoria at home, Bragantino away
Vitoria (home)Bragantino (away)
12Position11
WLWLWLast 5, oldest to newestDLDLL
15Played15
2.07Points per match1.07
67%Win %27%
1.47Scored / match0.93
0.80Conceded / match1.20
2.27Avg total goals2.13
20%Both scored53%
67%Clean sheets20%
20%Failed to score27%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

VitoriaBragantino
  • 0.601st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.872nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.472nd half conceded / match0.53
  • 53%Leading at half-time20%
  • 67%1st half over 0.573%
  • 20%1st half over 1.527%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.587%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.527%
  • 33%Scored in both halves13%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Vitoria at home, Bragantino away, this season.

Goals

VitoriaBragantino
  • 1.47Scored / match0.93
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.20
  • 2.27Match total / match2.13
  • 80%Scored 1+73%
  • 40%Scored 2+13%
  • 33%Conceded 1+80%
  • 27%Conceded 2+40%
  • 67%Match over 1.580%
  • 33%Match over 2.533%
  • 27%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
9Sao Paulo30039
10Coritiba29-1038
11Bragantino29137
12Vitoria30-1136
13Botafogo RJ29-535
14Vasco29-635
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Brasileirão Série A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.