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Winterthur v Étoile Carouge FC, Challenge League, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 13. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

WinterthurHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
Étoile Carouge FCAway
DWWWLLeague form, oldest to newestLDLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Winterthur have 5 scored home results and Étoile Carouge FC 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Winterthur at home: 2.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Étoile Carouge FC away: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Winterthur scored 2.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Étoile Carouge FC scored 0.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 100 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Winterthur: 1 wins; Étoile Carouge FC: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 50 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Winterthur
2.11
Expected goals, Étoile Carouge FC
0.48
Most likely score
2-0 (17%)
Three or more goals
48%
Both clubs score
34%
Winterthur score at least once
88%
Étoile Carouge FC score at least once
38%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Winterthur win–
Draw–
Étoile Carouge FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Winterthur goals, columns are Étoile Carouge FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
116%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
217%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
312%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.76 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Winterthur 10 matches, Étoile Carouge FC 10, the league 50, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.590.4%9.6%
2.559.6%40.4%
3.528.8%71.2%
4.515.4%84.6%

First-half goals · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.576.9%23.1%
1.540.4%59.6%
2.515.4%84.6%
3.55.8%94.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Winterthur wins
0
Draws
0
Étoile Carouge FC wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Winterthur clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Étoile Carouge FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Étoile Carouge FC v WinterthurFri, 11 Sept 2026 · Challenge League 2026-270–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Winterthur at homeLDWDWW
Étoile Carouge FC awayDWDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Winterthur at home, Étoile Carouge FC away
  • 55%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 92%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 65%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 60%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.98
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 78%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Winterthur at home, Étoile Carouge FC away
Winterthur (home)Étoile Carouge FC (away)
3Position9
DWDWWLast 5, oldest to newestDDLL
5Played4
2.20Points per match0.50
60%Win %0%
2.80Scored / match0.50
0.80Conceded / match2.00
3.60Avg total goals2.50
60%Both scored50%
40%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

WinterthurÉtoile Carouge FC
  • 1.401st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.401st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.402nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 40%Leading at half-time0%
  • 80%1st half over 0.575%
  • 60%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 60%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Winterthur at home, Étoile Carouge FC away, this season.

Goals

WinterthurÉtoile Carouge FC
  • 2.80Scored / match0.50
  • 0.80Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.60Match total / match2.50
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 80%Scored 2+0%
  • 60%Conceded 1+75%
  • 20%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 80%Match over 2.550%
  • 60%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Challenge League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.