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Wuxi Wugou v Changchun Yatai, Chinese League 1, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 30. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

Wuxi WugouHome
vKick-off 06:30 UTC
Changchun YataiAway
WLWDWLeague form, oldest to newestWDLDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Wuxi Wugou have 12 scored home results and Changchun Yatai 13 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Wuxi Wugou at home: 1.33 points per match (12 measured matches); Changchun Yatai away: 0.92 points per match (13 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Wuxi Wugou scored 1.33 per home match (12 measured matches); Changchun Yatai scored 1.31 away (13). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.35 per club appearance across 400 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 15 of 25 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Wuxi Wugou: 1 wins; Changchun Yatai: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 200 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Wuxi Wugou
2.00
Expected goals, Changchun Yatai
1.25
Most likely score
1-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
63%
Both clubs score
62%
Wuxi Wugou score at least once
86%
Changchun Yatai score at least once
71%
Season sample
26 and 26 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Wuxi Wugou win–
Draw–
Changchun Yatai win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Wuxi Wugou goals, columns are Changchun Yatai goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%10%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%10%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.43 goals) and away average (1.27 goals).

Sample. Wuxi Wugou 26 matches, Changchun Yatai 26, the league 200, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 200 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.3%26.7%
2.552.0%48.0%
3.527.7%72.3%
4.514.4%85.6%

First-half goals · 200 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.8%31.2%
1.536.1%63.9%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.53.5%96.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Wuxi Wugou wins
0
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai wins
Goals / meeting
6.00
6 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Wuxi Wugou clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Changchun Yatai clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Changchun Yatai v Wuxi WugouFri, 17 Jul 2026 · Chinese League 1 20261–5HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Wuxi Wugou at homeLWLLWD
Changchun Yatai awayLLLDLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Wuxi Wugou at home, Changchun Yatai away
  • 59%
    Both teams scored
    League 55%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 96%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 84%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 36%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 8%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.70
    12 + 13 matches
  • 72%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 69%
    12 + 13 matches
  • 39%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    12 + 13 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Wuxi Wugou at home, Changchun Yatai away
Wuxi Wugou (home)Changchun Yatai (away)
6Position8
WLLWDLast 5, oldest to newestLLDLD
12Played13
1.33Points per match0.92
33%Win %23%
1.33Scored / match1.31
1.17Conceded / match1.77
2.50Avg total goals3.08
42%Both scored77%
42%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score23%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Wuxi WugouChangchun Yatai
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.62
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.92
  • 0.832nd half scored / match0.69
  • 0.422nd half conceded / match0.85
  • 25%Leading at half-time15%
  • 67%1st half over 0.577%
  • 25%1st half over 1.554%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.577%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.546%
  • 17%Scored in both halves31%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Wuxi Wugou at home, Changchun Yatai away, this season.

Goals

Wuxi WugouChangchun Yatai
  • 1.33Scored / match1.31
  • 1.17Conceded / match1.77
  • 2.50Match total / match3.08
  • 75%Scored 1+77%
  • 42%Scored 2+31%
  • 58%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+62%
  • 75%Match over 1.592%
  • 42%Match over 2.569%
  • 33%Match over 3.539%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Chinese League 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.