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Yeovil v Scunthorpe, National League, Sat, 30 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Sat, 30 Jan 2027

YeovilHome
vKick-off 12:30 UTC
ScunthorpeAway
WWDWWLeague form, oldest to newestLLWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Yeovil have 7 scored home results and Scunthorpe 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Yeovil at home: 2.00 points per match (7 measured matches); Scunthorpe away: 0.43 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Yeovil scored 2.71 per home match (7 measured matches); Scunthorpe scored 0.86 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 14 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Yeovil: 0 wins; Scunthorpe: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Yeovil at home and Scunthorpe away.

Yeovil at home

  • Shots per match10.6
  • On target per match6.4
  • Goals per match2.7

Scunthorpe away

  • Shots per match7.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match0.9

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Yeovil
3.01
Expected goals, Scunthorpe
0.85
Most likely score
3-0 (10%)
Three or more goals
74%
Both clubs score
55%
Yeovil score at least once
95%
Scunthorpe score at least once
57%
Season sample
13 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Yeovil win–
Draw–
Scunthorpe win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Yeovil goals, columns are Scunthorpe goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
310%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
47%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
54%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
62%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Yeovil 13 matches, Scunthorpe 12, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.560.5%39.5%
3.538.2%61.8%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.2%26.8%
1.533.1%66.9%
2.514.0%86.0%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.564.1%35.9%
9.553.8%46.2%
10.542.8%57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.597.9%2.1%
1.590.3%9.7%
2.577.9%22.1%
3.564.1%35.9%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.529.0%71.0%
6.511.7%88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Yeovil wins
2
Draws
3
Scunthorpe wins
Goals / meeting
1.80
9 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Yeovil clean sheets
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Scunthorpe clean sheets
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
7.00
1 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
2.00
5 with card data
  1. Scunthorpe v YeovilSat, 8 Aug 2026 · National League 2026-271–1HT 0–0
  2. Yeovil v ScunthorpeSat, 7 Mar 2026 · National League 2025-260–3HT 0–0
  3. Scunthorpe v YeovilSat, 8 Nov 2025 · National League 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  4. Yeovil v ScunthorpeSat, 10 Dec 2022 · National League 2022-230–0HT 0–0
  5. Scunthorpe v YeovilSat, 6 Aug 2022 · National League 2022-232–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Yeovil at homeWWLWDW
Scunthorpe awayLLWLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Yeovil at home, Scunthorpe away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 86%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 81%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 57%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 43%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 43%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.10
    7 + 7 matches
  • 86%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 29%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 10.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.91
    7 + 6 matches
  • 70%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 54%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 48%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 43%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 3.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    7 + 6 matches
  • 69%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 64%
    7 + 6 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    7 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Yeovil at home, Scunthorpe away
Yeovil (home)Scunthorpe (away)
4Position22
WLWDWLast 5, oldest to newestLWLLL
7Played7
2.00Points per match0.43
57%Win %14%
2.71Scored / match0.86
1.29Conceded / match2.00
4.00Avg total goals2.86
71%Both scored29%
29%Clean sheets14%
0%Failed to score57%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

YeovilScunthorpe
  • 1.141st half scored / match0.29
  • 0.571st half conceded / match0.86
  • 1.572nd half scored / match0.57
  • 0.712nd half conceded / match1.14
  • 57%Leading at half-time14%
  • 100%1st half over 0.571%
  • 43%1st half over 1.514%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 71%2nd half over 1.543%
  • 57%Scored in both halves29%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Yeovil at home, Scunthorpe away, this season.

Goals

YeovilScunthorpe
  • 2.71Scored / match0.86
  • 1.29Conceded / match2.00
  • 4.00Match total / match2.86
  • 100%Scored 1+43%
  • 57%Scored 2+43%
  • 71%Conceded 1+86%
  • 29%Conceded 2+57%
  • 100%Match over 1.571%
  • 71%Match over 2.543%
  • 57%Match over 3.529%

Shots and xG

YeovilScunthorpe
  • 10.57Shots for7.50
  • 8.43Shots against10.67
  • 6.43On target for4.00
  • 4.57On target against5.50
  • 26%Shot conversion13%

Corners

YeovilScunthorpe
  • 5.57Corners for4.50
  • 4.14Corners against6.33
  • 9.71Match total10.83
  • 71%Over 7.5100%
  • 57%Over 8.583%
  • 43%Over 9.583%
  • 29%Over 10.567%
  • 29%Over 11.533%

Cards

YeovilScunthorpe
  • 2.00Cards for2.50
  • 2.00Cards against1.33
  • 4.00Match total3.83
  • 71%Over 2.567%
  • 71%Over 3.567%
  • 43%Over 4.533%
  • 14%Over 5.517%
  • 9.71Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Harrogate131228
3Southend131227
4Yeovil131725
5Worthing13924
6Altrincham13124
20Hartlepool13-712
21Boston Utd13-812
22Scunthorpe12-610
23Solihull13-227
24Gateshead13-234
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.