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York v Rochdale, EFL League Two, Sat, 27 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sat, 27 Feb 2027

YorkHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
RochdaleAway
DWLWDLeague form, oldest to newestDWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

York Community Stadium. Photo: DSimmonite, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, York have 5 scored home results and Rochdale 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: York at home: 2.60 points per match (5 measured matches); Rochdale away: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. York scored 2.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Rochdale scored 0.60 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 7. York: 4 wins; Rochdale: 1 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, York at home and Rochdale away.

York at home

xG 1.97
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match7.0
  • Goals per match2.6

Rochdale away

xG 0.53
  • Shots per match9.3
  • On target per match2.8
  • Goals per match0.6

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, York
2.19
Expected goals, Rochdale
0.86
Most likely score
2-0 (11%)
Three or more goals
59%
Both clubs score
51%
York score at least once
89%
Rochdale score at least once
58%
Season sample
9 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

York win–
Draw–
Rochdale win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are York goals, columns are Rochdale goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
45%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. York 9 matches, Rochdale 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

7 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
York wins
2
Draws
1
Rochdale wins
Goals / meeting
2.71
19 goals in 7 meetings
Both scored
57%
4 of 7 meetings
Over 1.5
71%
5 of 7 meetings
Over 2.5
57%
4 of 7 meetings
Over 3.5
43%
3 of 7 meetings
York clean sheets
43%
3 of 7 meetings
Rochdale clean sheets
14%
1 of 7 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
5.33
6 with card data
  1. Rochdale v YorkSat, 25 Apr 2026 · National League 2025-261–1HT 0–0
  2. York v RochdaleTue, 11 Nov 2025 · National League 2025-264–1HT 1–1
  3. Rochdale v YorkSat, 11 Oct 2025 · FA Cup, Qualification 20251–2HT 0–0
  4. Rochdale v YorkTue, 25 Mar 2025 · National League 2024-250–4HT 0–1
  5. York v RochdaleTue, 20 Aug 2024 · National League 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  6. Rochdale v YorkSat, 16 Dec 2023 · National League 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  7. York v RochdaleMon, 28 Aug 2023 · National League 2023-241–3HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
York at homeWWLDWD
Rochdale awayLLDWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
York at home, Rochdale away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.3
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
York at home, Rochdale away
York (home)Rochdale (away)
5Position10
WWWWDLast 5, oldest to newestLLDWD
5Played5
2.60Points per match1.00
80%Win %20%
2.60Scored / match0.60
0.80Conceded / match1.20
3.40Avg total goals1.80
60%Both scored40%
40%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score60%
1.97xG for0.53
0.91xG against1.54

Half by half

YorkRochdale
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.401st half conceded / match0.80
  • 1.802nd half scored / match0.20
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match0.40
  • 60%Leading at half-time20%
  • 100%1st half over 0.560%
  • 20%1st half over 1.540%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 80%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 60%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

York at home, Rochdale away, this season.

Goals

YorkRochdale
  • 2.60Scored / match0.60
  • 0.80Conceded / match1.20
  • 3.40Match total / match1.80
  • 100%Scored 1+40%
  • 80%Scored 2+20%
  • 60%Conceded 1+80%
  • 20%Conceded 2+20%
  • 100%Match over 1.560%
  • 80%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

YorkRochdale
  • 16.00Shots for9.25
  • 8.50Shots against17.00
  • 7.00On target for2.75
  • 2.25On target against5.75
  • 19%Shot conversion5%
  • 1.97xG for0.53
  • 0.91xG against1.54

Corners

YorkRochdale
  • 6.00Corners for4.50
  • 3.50Corners against6.50
  • 9.50Match total11.00
  • 50%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.575%
  • 50%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.525%

Cards

YorkRochdale
  • 1.50Cards for2.75
  • 2.25Cards against1.25
  • 3.75Match total4.00
  • 75%Over 2.575%
  • 50%Over 3.550%
  • 50%Over 4.525%
  • 0%Over 5.525%
  • 8.50Fouls committed12.25

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
6Walsall9615
7Chesterfield10315
8Cheltenham10015
9Bristol Rvs10-215
10Rochdale10-114
11Grimsby10213
12Newport County10113
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.