How the club ratings are calculated

Each club gets one rating per competition, updated after every finished league match since the 2017-18 season, in date order.

• Clubs start at 1500. A club entering a competition for the first time (for example after promotion) starts at that competition's current average rating minus 50.
• At the start of each new season a club's rating moves one third of the way back toward the competition average.
• The home club gets 60 extra points when calculating the expected result.

“Winner − loser” uses the ratings including the home advantage. The goal-difference formula equals zero for a draw, so we use a multiplier of 1 for draws; otherwise a draw would never move a rating. “Last 5” is the current rating minus the rating five league matches ago.

Built from goals in the current and previous season of the same competition. Each match is weighted by its age: a match 180 days old counts half as much as one played today.

The league venue average is the weighted goals per match scored by home clubs (when the club is at home) or by away clubs (when away). g is the league's goals per club per match; adding it six times is a prior worth six average matches, which pulls small samples toward 1.00. All clubs start at 1.00 and the two formulas are repeated 20 times so each club's numbers reflect the strength of the opponents it faced. Attack above 1.00 means more goals than an average side would score against the same opponents; defence below 1.00 means fewer conceded.

Each index is the club's percentile (0–100) among clubs in the same league this season; the raw value is shown alongside. 100 is the best in the league on that measure, except Tempo and Set pieces, where 100 simply means the highest.

• Attack:attack strength above.
• Defence:defence strength, inverted (fewer conceded = higher).
• Tempo:average total goals plus total shots (both clubs) in the club's matches.
• Set pieces:the club's share of corners in its matches.
• Discipline:cards per match, inverted.
• Finishing:goals minus xG per match; blank when the league has no xG.
• Form:rating now minus rating five matches ago.
• Home edge:home points per match minus away points per match.

• League matches only. Cup and European matches are not in our data, so ratings cannot compare clubs across leagues; each league is its own scale.
• Goals-based. The rating and strength figures use scores only, not shots or xG, so a lucky or unlucky run moves them.
• Small samples early in a season. Indexes use this season's matches only; in the first weeks they rest on a handful of games. The match count is always shown.
• Missing statistics (corners, cards, shots, xG) leave the related index blank rather than estimated.
• Ratings describe past results. They are not a forecast.

• Club ratings: Ratings and strength figures calculated from stored scores.
• Compare: Put two stored records side by side.
• Leagues: Tables, fixtures, results and statistics for each stored competition.
• Clubs: Club pages with season statistics.

• Club prediction method: The five steps behind the free club predictions, with a worked example.
• Archive methodology: How the archived World Cup 2026 projections were built: sample, filters, confidence and limits.
• Model evaluation: A historical reconstruction that scores the club prototype against stored results.

• FAQ: Short answers about projections, past purchases and our record.
• Glossary: Short definitions of the statistical terms used across the site.
• Data status: Coverage of the stored match data, competition by competition.
• Contact: Methodology questions, corrections, partnerships and press.