← World Cup 2026·Group G·MD 1

Iran flagIran 22 New Zealand flagNew ZealandFT

Played 2026-06-15 · SoFi Stadium · Los Angeles, USA
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles — 2026 FIFA World Cup host venue
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles, USA
Passive cooling (roof+misting)
Result Verdict

Projected vs actual

Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.

Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
50.5
96%
41
Hit
Total Foulso18.5
25.2
83%
18
Miss
Total Cornerso7.5
8.9
68%
5
Miss
Shots on Targeto6.5
4.6
26%
12
Hit
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
2.9
79%
4
Hit
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
2.9
91%
4
Hit
Exclusive

Statistical Projections

Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.

Total Throw-ins
50.5throw-ins
High
Over 33.5
96%
Adjustment: mismatch +0.8
Per-team splits
Iran
28.9throw-ins
99% probability
New Zealand
21.6throw-ins
84% probability
Total Fouls
25.2fouls
High
Over 18.5
83%
Adjustment: mismatch +1.0
Per-team splits
Iran
12.9fouls
77% probability
New Zealand
12.3fouls
73% probability
Total Corners
8.9corners
High
Over 7.5
68%
Per-team splits
Iran
5corners
72% probability
New Zealand
3.9corners
55% probability
Shots on Target
4.6SoT
High
Over 6.5
26%
Per-team splits
Iran
1.7SoT
37% probability
New Zealand
2.9SoT
57% probability
Total Goals (1.5+)
2.87goals
High
Over 1.5
79%
Per-team splits
Iran
goals
% probability
New Zealand
goals
% probability
Total Goals (0.5+)
2.87goals
High
Over 0.5
91%
Per-team splits
Iran
1.85goals
84% probability
New Zealand
1.02goals
64% probability
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Matchup Profile

What shapes the numbers

Strength mismatch
HIGH
Slight heat
SLIGHT DOWNGRADE if hot
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SyncEdge

Full projections for all 72 matches

Per-team splits, confidence ratings, adjustment notes — the complete intelligence layer.

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