← World Cup 2026·Group H·MD 1

Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia 11 Uruguay flagUruguayFT

Played 2026-06-15 · Hard Rock · Miami, USA
Result Verdict

Projected vs actual

Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.

Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
46.6
92%
38
Hit
Total Foulso18.5
24.1
79%
17
Miss
Total Cornerso7.5
8.5
62%
18
Hit
Shots on Targeto6.5
3.9
19%
13
Hit
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
2.0
62%
2
Hit
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
2.0
81%
2
Hit
Exclusive

Statistical Projections

Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.

Total Throw-ins
46.6throw-ins
Medium
Over 33.5
92%
Adjustment: mismatch +0.8
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
27.7throw-ins
98% probability
Uruguay
18.9throw-ins
71% probability
Total Fouls
24.1fouls
Medium
Over 18.5
79%
Adjustment: mismatch +1.0
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
11.2fouls
64% probability
Uruguay
12.9fouls
77% probability
Total Corners
8.5corners
Medium
Over 7.5
62%
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
4corners
58% probability
Uruguay
4.5corners
65% probability
Shots on Target
3.9SoT
Medium
Over 6.5
19%
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
1.8SoT
38% probability
Uruguay
2.1SoT
44% probability
Total Goals (1.5+)
2.03goals
High
Over 1.5
62%
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
goals
% probability
Uruguay
goals
% probability
Total Goals (0.5+)
2.03goals
High
Over 0.5
81%
Per-team splits
Saudi Arabia
0.93goals
60% probability
Uruguay
1.1goals
67% probability
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Matchup Profile

What shapes the numbers

Strength mismatch
HIGH
HEAT downgrade
DOWNGRADE tempo overs
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SyncEdge

Full projections for all 72 matches

Per-team splits, confidence ratings, adjustment notes — the complete intelligence layer.

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