← World Cup 2026·Group D·MD 1

USA flagUSA 41 Paraguay flagParaguayFT

Played 2026-06-12 · SoFi Stadium · Los Angeles, USA
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles — 2026 FIFA World Cup host venue
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles, USA
Passive cooling (roof+misting)
Result Verdict

Projected vs actual

Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.

Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
41.0
79%
40
Hit
Total Foulso18.5
25.2
83%
30
Hit
Total Cornerso7.5
8.6
63%
4
Miss
Shots on Targeto6.5
7.4
63%
7
Hit
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
2.5
72%
5
Hit
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
2.5
88%
5
Hit
Exclusive

Statistical Projections

Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.

Total Throw-ins
41throw-ins
High
Over 33.5
79%
Adjustment: none
Per-team splits
USA
19.1throw-ins
72% probability
Paraguay
21.9throw-ins
85% probability
Total Fouls
25.2fouls
High
Over 18.5
83%
Adjustment: deep-defender +1.0
Per-team splits
USA
11.2fouls
64% probability
Paraguay
14fouls
84% probability
Total Corners
8.6corners
High
Over 7.5
63%
Per-team splits
USA
5corners
72% probability
Paraguay
3.6corners
52% probability
Shots on Target
7.4SoT
High
Over 6.5
63%
Per-team splits
USA
4.4SoT
79% probability
Paraguay
3SoT
58% probability
Total Goals (1.5+)
2.52goals
High
Over 1.5
72%
Per-team splits
USA
goals
% probability
Paraguay
goals
% probability
Total Goals (0.5+)
2.52goals
High
Over 0.5
88%
Per-team splits
USA
1.24goals
71% probability
Paraguay
1.28goals
72% probability
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Matchup Profile

What shapes the numbers

Strength mismatch
MODERATE
Deep-defending side present
Foul counts trend higher
Slight heat
SLIGHT DOWNGRADE if hot
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SyncEdge

Full projections for all 72 matches

Per-team splits, confidence ratings, adjustment notes — the complete intelligence layer.

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