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Bolton v Southampton, EFL Championship, Sat, 16 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 26. Sat, 16 Jan 2027

BoltonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
SouthamptonAway
LLWWLLeague form, oldest to newestDDWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Toughsheet Community Stadium. Photo: Mark Hammond from London, England, CC BY 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Bolton have 5 scored home results and Southampton 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Bolton at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Southampton away: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Bolton scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); Southampton scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 9 pooled club appearances (77.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Bolton at home and Southampton away.

Bolton at home

xG 1.19
  • Shots per match14.0
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.2

Southampton away

xG 1.37
  • Shots per match16.5
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Bolton
1.30
Expected goals, Southampton
2.79
Most likely score
1-2 (9%)
Three or more goals
77%
Both clubs score
68%
Bolton score at least once
73%
Southampton score at least once
94%
Season sample
9 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Bolton win–
Draw–
Southampton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Bolton goals, columns are Southampton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%5%7%6%4%2%1%under 1%
12%6%9%8%6%3%1%1%
21%4%6%5%4%2%1%under 1%
31%2%2%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Bolton 9 matches, Southampton 8, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Bolton at homeLWLLWL
Southampton awayWWLDDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Bolton at home, Southampton away
  • 80%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 9.8
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 5.0
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Bolton at home, Southampton away
Bolton (home)Southampton (away)
17Position5
WLLWLLast 5, oldest to newestLDDL
5Played4
1.20Points per match0.50
40%Win %0%
1.20Scored / match1.00
1.40Conceded / match1.50
2.60Avg total goals2.50
60%Both scored100%
20%Clean sheets0%
20%Failed to score0%
1.19xG for1.37
1.55xG against1.21

Half by half

BoltonSouthampton
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.75
  • 0.402nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 20%Leading at half-time50%
  • 60%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 40%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Bolton at home, Southampton away, this season.

Goals

BoltonSouthampton
  • 1.20Scored / match1.00
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.50
  • 2.60Match total / match2.50
  • 80%Scored 1+100%
  • 40%Scored 2+0%
  • 80%Conceded 1+100%
  • 40%Conceded 2+50%
  • 60%Match over 1.5100%
  • 60%Match over 2.550%
  • 20%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BoltonSouthampton
  • 14.00Shots for16.50
  • 11.50Shots against14.75
  • 5.75On target for4.50
  • 5.50On target against4.00
  • 9%Shot conversion6%
  • 1.19xG for1.37
  • 1.55xG against1.21

Corners

BoltonSouthampton
  • 6.25Corners for5.50
  • 4.50Corners against3.25
  • 10.75Match total8.75
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 50%Over 9.550%
  • 50%Over 10.525%
  • 50%Over 11.525%

Cards

BoltonSouthampton
  • 1.75Cards for2.25
  • 2.75Cards against3.25
  • 4.50Match total5.50
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.575%
  • 50%Over 4.575%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 10.25Fouls committed8.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3West Ham91116
4Stoke9216
5Southampton8914
6Wolves8414
7QPR9314
15Wrexham9-311
16Lincoln9-411
17Bolton9-510
18Norwich9-29
19Portsmouth7-18
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.