Burnley vs Norwich stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Matchday 43. Sat, 17 Apr 2027

BurnleyHome

vKick-off 14:00 UTC

NorwichAway

LDLDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Turf Moor. Photo: Adam Haworth, CC BY 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Burnley have 4 scored home results and Norwich 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Burnley at home: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches); Norwich away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Burnley scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Norwich scored 1.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 9 pooled club appearances (77.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 9. Burnley: 6 wins; Norwich: 2 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Burnley at home and Norwich away.

Burnley at home

xG 0.92

Shots per match10.8
On target per match3.3
Goals per match1.3

Norwich away

xG 1.72

Shots per match13.8
On target per match5.3
Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Burnley: 2.38
Expected goals, Norwich: 2.22
Most likely score: 2-2 (7%)
Three or more goals: 84%
Both clubs score: 81%
Burnley score at least once: 91%
Norwich score at least once: 89%
Season sample: 9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Burnley win–

Draw–

Norwich win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Burnley goals, columns are Norwich goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

01%2%2%2%1%

12%5%6%4%2%1%

23%6%7%5%3%1%

32%5%6%4%2%1%

41%3%3%2%1%1%

51%1%2%1%1%

61%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Burnley 9 matches, Norwich 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

9 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Burnley wins

Draws

Norwich wins

Goals / meeting

2.33

21 goals in 9 meetings

Both scored

33%

3 of 9 meetings

Over 1.5

78%

7 of 9 meetings

Over 2.5

44%

4 of 9 meetings

Over 3.5

11%

1 of 9 meetings

Burnley clean sheets

56%

5 of 9 meetings

Norwich clean sheets

22%

2 of 9 meetings

Corners / meeting

10.78

9 with corner data

Cards / meeting

4.67

9 with card data

Norwich v BurnleySat, 29 Aug 2026 · EFL Championship 2026-274–1HT 3–1
Burnley v NorwichFri, 11 Apr 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-252–1HT 2–0
Norwich v BurnleySun, 15 Dec 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-251–2HT 1–0
Norwich v BurnleySat, 4 Feb 2023 · EFL Championship 2022-230–3HT 0–1
Burnley v NorwichTue, 25 Oct 2022 · EFL Championship 2022-231–0HT 0–0
Norwich v BurnleySun, 10 Apr 2022 · Premier League 2021-222–0HT 1–0
Burnley v NorwichSat, 2 Oct 2021 · Premier League 2021-220–0HT 0–0
Norwich v BurnleySat, 18 Jul 2020 · Premier League 2019-200–2HT 0–1
Burnley v NorwichSat, 21 Sept 2019 · Premier League 2019-202–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Burnley at homeDDDDLD

Sat, 19 Septv Derby1–1C 4–6 · Y 4–2
Sat, 5 Septv Bristol City1–2C 5–8 · Y 3–0
Wed, 2 Septv Middlesbrough1–1C 5–1 · Y 2–2
Sun, 16 Augv West Ham2–2C 5–6 · Y 1–4
Sat, 8 Augv Notts County1–1C ––– · Y –––
Sun, 24 Mayv Wolves1–1C 7–7 · Y 2–2

Norwich awayWLWLLL

Sat, 10 Oct@ Swansea1–2C ––– · Y –––
Thu, 17 Sept@ Man City0–5C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 12 Sept@ Middlesbrough3–4C 5–3 · Y 1–2
Sat, 5 Sept@ Sheffield United3–1C 4–7 · Y 3–2
Tue, 1 Sept@ Stoke0–1C 5–3 · Y 2–2
Tue, 25 Aug@ Cardiff2–1C ––– · Y –––

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Burnley at home, Norwich away

80%
Both teams scored
League 67%
4 + 5 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 93%
4 + 5 matches
90%
Over 1.5 goals
League 79%
4 + 5 matches
65%
Over 2.5 goals
League 62%
4 + 5 matches
33%
Over 3.5 goals
League 34%
4 + 5 matches
10%
Over 4.5 goals
League 9%
4 + 5 matches
3.2
Avg total goals
League 2.85
4 + 5 matches
88%
1st half over 0.5
League 79%
4 + 5 matches
20%
1st half over 1.5
League 40%
4 + 5 matches
9.8
Corners per match
League 10.60
4 + 4 matches
63%
Corners over 8.5
League 71%
4 + 4 matches
63%
Corners over 9.5
League 59%
4 + 4 matches
50%
Corners over 10.5
League 49%
4 + 4 matches
4.4
Cards per match
League 3.92
4 + 4 matches
75%
Cards over 3.5
League 48%
4 + 4 matches
50%
Cards over 4.5
League 36%
4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Burnley at home, Norwich away

Burnley (home)		Norwich (away)
22	Position	18
DDLD	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLWLL
4	Played	5
0.75	Points per match	0.60
0%	Win %	20%
1.25	Scored / match	1.40
1.50	Conceded / match	2.20
2.75	Avg total goals	3.60
100%	Both scored	60%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	40%
0.92	xG for	1.72
1.34	xG against	1.44

Half by half

BurnleyNorwich

0.251st half scored / match0.80
0.501st half conceded / match1.20
1.002nd half scored / match0.60
1.002nd half conceded / match1.00
25%Leading at half-time40%
75%1st half over 0.5100%
0%1st half over 1.540%
100%2nd half over 0.580%
50%2nd half over 1.560%
0%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Burnley at home, Norwich away, this season.

Goals

BurnleyNorwich

1.25Scored / match1.40
1.50Conceded / match2.20
2.75Match total / match3.60
100%Scored 1+60%
25%Scored 2+40%
100%Conceded 1+100%
50%Conceded 2+60%
100%Match over 1.580%
50%Match over 2.580%
25%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

BurnleyNorwich

10.75Shots for13.75
13.25Shots against13.25
3.25On target for5.25
3.50On target against4.75
12%Shot conversion11%
0.92xG for1.72
1.34xG against1.44

Corners

BurnleyNorwich

4.75Corners for4.25
5.25Corners against5.25
10.00Match total9.50
75%Over 7.5100%
75%Over 8.550%
75%Over 9.550%
50%Over 10.550%
25%Over 11.50%

Cards

BurnleyNorwich

2.50Cards for2.50
2.00Cards against1.75
4.50Match total4.25
100%Over 2.5100%
75%Over 3.575%
50%Over 4.550%
25%Over 5.50%
11.25Fouls committed10.00

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
16	Lincoln	9	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	-1	8
20	Watford	9	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	-4	7
23	Derby	9	-7	6
24	Preston	9	-8	4

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.