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Cittadella v Carpi, Serie C, Girone A, Sun, 24 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 23. Sun, 24 Jan 2027

CittadellaHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
CarpiAway
WWWLWLeague form, oldest to newestDDLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cittadella have 4 scored home results and Carpi 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cittadella at home: 2.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Carpi away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cittadella scored 2.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Carpi scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.17 per club appearance across 162 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Cittadella: 3 wins; Carpi: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 81 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cittadella
3.25
Expected goals, Carpi
0.38
Most likely score
3-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
70%
Both clubs score
31%
Cittadella score at least once
96%
Carpi score at least once
32%
Season sample
8 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cittadella win–
Draw–
Carpi win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cittadella goals, columns are Carpi goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
315%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
413%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
58%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
64%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
72%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.20 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Cittadella 8 matches, Carpi 9, the league 81, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 81 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.567.5%32.5%
2.548.2%51.8%
3.524.1%75.9%
4.56.0%94.0%

First-half goals · 81 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.560.2%39.8%
1.527.7%72.3%
2.512.0%88.0%
3.51.2%98.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Cittadella wins
1
Draws
1
Carpi wins
Goals / meeting
2.20
11 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Cittadella clean sheets
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Carpi clean sheets
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.50
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.75
4 with card data
  1. Carpi v CittadellaSun, 13 Sept 2026 · Serie C, Girone A 2026-271–2HT 1–0
  2. Cittadella v CarpiSat, 26 Jan 2019 · Serie B 2018-193–1HT 0–0
  3. Carpi v CittadellaSat, 1 Sept 2018 · Serie B 2018-190–1HT 0–0
  4. Carpi v CittadellaSat, 12 May 2018 · Serie B 2017-181–1HT 1–1
  5. Cittadella v CarpiThu, 21 Dec 2017 · Serie B 2017-180–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cittadella at homeDWWWWL
Carpi awayLLWDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cittadella at home, Carpi away
  • 43%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 84%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 68%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 48%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 23%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 5%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.33
    4 + 5 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 60%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 43%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 27%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cittadella at home, Carpi away
Cittadella (home)Carpi (away)
1Position17
WWWLLast 5, oldest to newestLWDLL
4Played5
2.25Points per match0.80
75%Win %20%
2.00Scored / match1.00
0.50Conceded / match1.80
2.50Avg total goals2.80
25%Both scored60%
75%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

CittadellaCarpi
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.501st half conceded / match1.20
  • 1.502nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 50%Leading at half-time20%
  • 75%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 25%1st half over 1.560%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 50%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cittadella at home, Carpi away, this season.

Goals

CittadellaCarpi
  • 2.00Scored / match1.00
  • 0.50Conceded / match1.80
  • 2.50Match total / match2.80
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 75%Scored 2+20%
  • 25%Conceded 1+80%
  • 25%Conceded 2+80%
  • 100%Match over 1.580%
  • 50%Match over 2.560%
  • 0%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie C, Girone A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.