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FC Gagra v Dinamo Tbilisi, Erovnuli Liga, Wed, 2 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 35. Wed, 2 Dec 2026

FC GagraHome
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
Dinamo TbilisiAway
WLDLDLeague form, oldest to newestDDWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, FC Gagra have 14 scored home results and Dinamo Tbilisi 13 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: FC Gagra at home: 1.14 points per match (14 measured matches); Dinamo Tbilisi away: 2.00 points per match (13 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. FC Gagra scored 1.07 per home match (14 measured matches); Dinamo Tbilisi scored 1.85 away (13). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 274 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 19 of 27 pooled club appearances (70.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. FC Gagra: 2 wins; Dinamo Tbilisi: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 137 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, FC Gagra
0.81
Expected goals, Dinamo Tbilisi
1.63
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
44%
Both clubs score
45%
FC Gagra score at least once
56%
Dinamo Tbilisi score at least once
80%
Season sample
27 and 27 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

FC Gagra win–
Draw–
Dinamo Tbilisi win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are FC Gagra goals, columns are Dinamo Tbilisi goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%14%12%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%
17%11%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
23%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.39 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. FC Gagra 27 matches, Dinamo Tbilisi 27, the league 137, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 18 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 137 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.7%27.3%
2.553.2%46.8%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.514.4%85.6%

First-half goals · 137 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.9%33.1%
1.538.1%61.9%
2.516.5%83.5%
3.55.8%94.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
FC Gagra wins
0
Draws
1
Dinamo Tbilisi wins
Goals / meeting
2.67
8 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
FC Gagra clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Dinamo Tbilisi v FC GagraMon, 14 Sept 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20264–0HT 3–0
  2. FC Gagra v Dinamo TbilisiSun, 14 Jun 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20262–1HT 2–0
  3. Dinamo Tbilisi v FC GagraTue, 21 Apr 2026 · Erovnuli Liga 20260–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
FC Gagra at homeWDDWDD
Dinamo Tbilisi awayWLWDWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
FC Gagra at home, Dinamo Tbilisi away
  • 71%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 85%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 81%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 52%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 19%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 12%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    14 + 13 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 41%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 38%
    14 + 13 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
FC Gagra at home, Dinamo Tbilisi away
FC Gagra (home)Dinamo Tbilisi (away)
8Position3
DDWDDLast 5, oldest to newestLWDWW
14Played13
1.14Points per match2.00
21%Win %54%
1.07Scored / match1.85
1.14Conceded / match1.08
2.21Avg total goals2.92
64%Both scored77%
21%Clean sheets23%
21%Failed to score23%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

FC GagraDinamo Tbilisi
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.92
  • 0.571st half conceded / match0.69
  • 0.572nd half scored / match0.92
  • 0.572nd half conceded / match0.38
  • 21%Leading at half-time31%
  • 71%1st half over 0.569%
  • 36%1st half over 1.546%
  • 79%2nd half over 0.577%
  • 36%2nd half over 1.539%
  • 14%Scored in both halves46%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

FC Gagra at home, Dinamo Tbilisi away, this season.

Goals

FC GagraDinamo Tbilisi
  • 1.07Scored / match1.85
  • 1.14Conceded / match1.08
  • 2.21Match total / match2.92
  • 79%Scored 1+77%
  • 29%Scored 2+62%
  • 79%Conceded 1+77%
  • 29%Conceded 2+31%
  • 86%Match over 1.577%
  • 36%Match over 2.569%
  • 7%Match over 3.531%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Erovnuli Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.