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Hamilton v Airdrie Utd, Scottish League One, Sat, 26 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 20. Sat, 26 Dec 2026

HamiltonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Airdrie UtdAway
WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestLWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Hamilton have 5 scored home results and Airdrie Utd 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Hamilton at home: 3.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Airdrie Utd away: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Hamilton scored 2.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Airdrie Utd scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.40 per club appearance across 98 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Hamilton: 3 wins; Airdrie Utd: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Hamilton at home and Airdrie Utd away.

Hamilton at home

  • Shots per match12.4
  • On target per match5.6
  • Goals per match2.4

Airdrie Utd away

  • Shots per match7.5
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 49 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Hamilton
2.50
Expected goals, Airdrie Utd
0.12
Most likely score
2-0 (23%)
Three or more goals
49%
Both clubs score
10%
Hamilton score at least once
92%
Airdrie Utd score at least once
11%
Season sample
9 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Hamilton win–
Draw–
Airdrie Utd win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Hamilton goals, columns are Airdrie Utd goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
118%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
223%3%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
319%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
412%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
56%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
62%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.61 goals) and away average (1.18 goals).

Sample. Hamilton 9 matches, Airdrie Utd 10, the league 49, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 49 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.5%25.5%
2.558.8%41.2%
3.527.5%72.5%
4.515.7%84.3%

First-half goals · 49 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.7%33.3%
1.527.5%72.5%
2.511.8%88.2%
3.55.9%94.1%

Corners · 44 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.2%34.8%
9.543.5%56.5%
10.532.6%67.4%

Yellow + red card events · 44 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.5%6.5%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.580.4%19.6%
3.576.1%23.9%
4.558.7%41.3%
5.534.8%65.2%
6.521.7%78.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Hamilton wins
1
Draws
1
Airdrie Utd wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
20 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
5 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
100%
5 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Hamilton clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Airdrie Utd clean sheets
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
14.00
5 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.40
5 with card data
  1. Hamilton v Airdrie UtdSat, 15 Aug 2026 · Scottish League One 2026-274–0HT 1–0
  2. Airdrie Utd v HamiltonSat, 8 Mar 2025 · Scottish Championship 2024-252–1HT 0–0
  3. Hamilton v Airdrie UtdSat, 28 Dec 2024 · Scottish Championship 2024-253–2HT 2–2
  4. Airdrie Utd v HamiltonSat, 2 Nov 2024 · Scottish Championship 2024-250–4HT 0–2
  5. Hamilton v Airdrie UtdSat, 31 Aug 2024 · Scottish Championship 2024-252–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Hamilton at homeLWWWWW
Airdrie Utd awayWLLWWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Hamilton at home, Airdrie Utd away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 45%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 59%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.80
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 27%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.09
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 45%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 43%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 35%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 32%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 4.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.68
    5 + 4 matches
  • 70%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 77%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 70%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 59%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Hamilton at home, Airdrie Utd away
Hamilton (home)Airdrie Utd (away)
2Position5
WWWWWLast 5, oldest to newestDLLWD
5Played5
3.00Points per match1.00
100%Win %20%
2.40Scored / match1.00
0.40Conceded / match1.80
2.80Avg total goals2.80
40%Both scored60%
60%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score40%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

HamiltonAirdrie Utd
  • 1.201st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.201st half conceded / match0.60
  • 1.202nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 80%Leading at half-time40%
  • 80%1st half over 0.580%
  • 20%1st half over 1.520%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 40%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Hamilton at home, Airdrie Utd away, this season.

Goals

HamiltonAirdrie Utd
  • 2.40Scored / match1.00
  • 0.40Conceded / match1.80
  • 2.80Match total / match2.80
  • 100%Scored 1+60%
  • 60%Scored 2+40%
  • 40%Conceded 1+80%
  • 0%Conceded 2+60%
  • 60%Match over 1.580%
  • 60%Match over 2.580%
  • 40%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

HamiltonAirdrie Utd
  • 12.40Shots for7.50
  • 6.40Shots against10.50
  • 5.60On target for3.25
  • 2.20On target against4.75
  • 19%Shot conversion10%

Corners

HamiltonAirdrie Utd
  • 6.60Corners for5.00
  • 3.20Corners against6.50
  • 9.80Match total11.50
  • 80%Over 7.5100%
  • 80%Over 8.5100%
  • 40%Over 9.550%
  • 20%Over 10.550%
  • 20%Over 11.550%

Cards

HamiltonAirdrie Utd
  • 2.20Cards for3.75
  • 1.40Cards against2.50
  • 3.60Match total6.25
  • 60%Over 2.5100%
  • 40%Over 3.5100%
  • 40%Over 4.5100%
  • 20%Over 5.550%
  • 14.80Fouls committed13.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Ross County92625
2Hamilton91925
3East Kilbride10517
4Montrose10-615
5Airdrie Utd10-413
6Queen of Sth10-1610
7East Fife10-39
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.