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Lazio v Bologna, Serie A, Sun, 17 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 20. Sun, 17 Jan 2027

LazioHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
BolognaAway
WWWDWLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Olimpico. Photo: Messapi , cropped by Blackcat, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Lazio have 2 scored home results and Bologna 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Lazio at home: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Bologna away: 0.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Lazio scored 1.50 per home match (2 measured matches); Bologna scored 0.00 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 4 pooled club appearances (25.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Lazio: 5 wins; Bologna: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Lazio at home and Bologna away.

Lazio at home

xG 1.79
  • Shots per match11.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.5

Bologna away

xG 0.83
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match2.5
  • Goals per match0.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Lazio
1.41
Expected goals, Bologna
0.23
Most likely score
1-0 (27%)
Three or more goals
23%
Both clubs score
16%
Lazio score at least once
76%
Bologna score at least once
21%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Lazio win–
Draw–
Bologna win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Lazio goals, columns are Bologna goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
019%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
127%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
219%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Lazio 5 matches, Bologna 5, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Lazio wins
2
Draws
3
Bologna wins
Goals / meeting
2.30
23 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Lazio clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Bologna clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
7.70
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
6.10
10 with card data
  1. Bologna v LazioMon, 24 Aug 2026 · Serie A 2026-270–1HT 0–0
  2. Bologna v LazioSun, 22 Mar 2026 · Serie A 2025-260–2HT 0–0
  3. Lazio v BolognaSun, 7 Dec 2025 · Serie A 2025-261–1HT 1–1
  4. Bologna v LazioSun, 16 Mar 2025 · Serie A 2024-255–0HT 1–0
  5. Lazio v BolognaSun, 24 Nov 2024 · Serie A 2024-253–0HT 0–0
  6. Lazio v BolognaSun, 18 Feb 2024 · Serie A 2023-241–2HT 1–1
  7. Bologna v LazioFri, 3 Nov 2023 · Serie A 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  8. Bologna v LazioSat, 11 Mar 2023 · Serie A 2022-230–0HT 0–0
  9. Lazio v BolognaSun, 14 Aug 2022 · Serie A 2022-232–1HT 0–1
  10. Lazio v BolognaSat, 12 Feb 2022 · Serie A 2021-223–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Lazio at homeDLWLWD
Bologna awayLWWLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Lazio at home, Bologna away
  • 25%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 1.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 6.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.5
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Lazio at home, Bologna away
Lazio (home)Bologna (away)
3Position19
WDLast 5, oldest to newestLL
2Played2
2.00Points per match0.00
50%Win %0%
1.50Scored / match0.00
1.00Conceded / match1.00
2.50Avg total goals1.00
50%Both scored0%
50%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score100%
1.79xG for0.83
0.92xG against0.68

Half by half

LazioBologna
  • 1.501st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.00
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.00
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 100%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.50%
  • 50%1st half over 1.50%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Lazio at home, Bologna away, this season.

Goals

LazioBologna
  • 1.50Scored / match0.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.50Match total / match1.00
  • 100%Scored 1+0%
  • 50%Scored 2+0%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+0%
  • 50%Match over 1.50%
  • 50%Match over 2.50%
  • 50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

LazioBologna
  • 11.50Shots for10.50
  • 12.00Shots against10.00
  • 4.00On target for2.50
  • 4.00On target against2.50
  • 13%Shot conversion0%
  • 1.79xG for0.83
  • 0.92xG against0.68

Corners

LazioBologna
  • 3.00Corners for1.00
  • 3.50Corners against5.50
  • 6.50Match total6.50
  • 0%Over 7.550%
  • 0%Over 8.550%
  • 0%Over 9.550%
  • 0%Over 10.50%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

LazioBologna
  • 1.50Cards for0.50
  • 2.50Cards against0.50
  • 4.00Match total1.00
  • 100%Over 2.50%
  • 50%Over 3.50%
  • 50%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 16.50Fouls committed11.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Inter61016
2Roma51113
3Lazio5513
4Cagliari5312
5Milan5611
17Parma6-64
18Fiorentina6-74
19Bologna5-32
20Venezia5-90
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.