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MatchDaySync

Lincoln v Bolton, EFL Championship, Sat, 17 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 43. Sat, 17 Apr 2027

LincolnHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
BoltonAway
DWWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Sincil Bank. Photo: Differentgravy at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Lincoln have 4 scored home results and Bolton 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Lincoln at home: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Bolton away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Lincoln scored 0.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Bolton scored 1.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Lincoln: 2 wins; Bolton: 5 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Lincoln at home and Bolton away.

Lincoln at home

xG 1.96
  • Shots per match16.3
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match0.8

Bolton away

xG 1.09
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Lincoln
1.15
Expected goals, Bolton
1.02
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
44%
Lincoln score at least once
68%
Bolton score at least once
64%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Lincoln win–
Draw–
Bolton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Lincoln goals, columns are Bolton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%12%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%13%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Lincoln 9 matches, Bolton 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Lincoln wins
3
Draws
5
Bolton wins
Goals / meeting
2.60
26 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Lincoln clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Bolton clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.90
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.70
10 with card data
  1. Bolton v LincolnSat, 29 Aug 2026 · EFL Championship 2026-270–1HT 0–0
  2. Lincoln v BoltonSat, 14 Feb 2026 · EFL League One 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Bolton v LincolnSat, 23 Aug 2025 · EFL League One 2025-261–1HT 0–1
  4. Lincoln v BoltonMon, 21 Apr 2025 · EFL League One 2024-254–2HT 2–2
  5. Bolton v LincolnSun, 29 Dec 2024 · EFL League One 2024-253–0HT 1–0
  6. Lincoln v BoltonTue, 26 Dec 2023 · EFL League One 2023-240–1HT 0–0
  7. Bolton v LincolnSat, 5 Aug 2023 · EFL League One 2023-243–0HT 1–0
  8. Lincoln v BoltonFri, 30 Dec 2022 · EFL League One 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  9. Bolton v LincolnSat, 1 Oct 2022 · EFL League One 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  10. Bolton v LincolnTue, 22 Feb 2022 · EFL League One 2021-223–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Lincoln at homeWWLDDL
Bolton awayDLDLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Lincoln at home, Bolton away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 9.4
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.0
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Lincoln at home, Bolton away
Lincoln (home)Bolton (away)
16Position17
LDDLLast 5, oldest to newestDLLW
4Played4
0.50Points per match1.00
0%Win %25%
0.75Scored / match1.50
1.50Conceded / match2.50
2.25Avg total goals4.00
75%Both scored50%
25%Clean sheets25%
25%Failed to score50%
1.96xG for1.09
0.76xG against1.84

Half by half

LincolnBolton
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.751st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.252nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 25%1st half over 1.550%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 0%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Lincoln at home, Bolton away, this season.

Goals

LincolnBolton
  • 0.75Scored / match1.50
  • 1.50Conceded / match2.50
  • 2.25Match total / match4.00
  • 75%Scored 1+50%
  • 0%Scored 2+50%
  • 75%Conceded 1+75%
  • 50%Conceded 2+75%
  • 75%Match over 1.575%
  • 50%Match over 2.575%
  • 25%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

LincolnBolton
  • 16.25Shots for10.50
  • 11.75Shots against13.25
  • 3.50On target for3.75
  • 4.25On target against6.00
  • 5%Shot conversion14%
  • 1.96xG for1.09
  • 0.76xG against1.84

Corners

LincolnBolton
  • 4.75Corners for4.50
  • 4.25Corners against5.25
  • 9.00Match total9.75
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.575%
  • 75%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 25%Over 11.525%

Cards

LincolnBolton
  • 2.25Cards for1.50
  • 1.75Cards against0.50
  • 4.00Match total2.00
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 50%Over 3.50%
  • 25%Over 4.50%
  • 25%Over 5.50%
  • 13.75Fouls committed11.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
14Sheffield United9112
15Wrexham9-311
16Lincoln9-411
17Bolton9-510
18Norwich9-29
19Portsmouth7-18
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.