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Magdeburg v Heidenheim, 2. Bundesliga, Sat, 16 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 17. Sat, 16 Jan 2027

MagdeburgHome
vKick-off 10:00 UTC
HeidenheimAway
WLWDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWWDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Magdeburg have 4 scored home results and Heidenheim 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Magdeburg at home: 2.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Heidenheim away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Magdeburg scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Heidenheim scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.64 per club appearance across 120 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 7 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Magdeburg: 0 wins; Heidenheim: 1 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Magdeburg at home and Heidenheim away.

Magdeburg at home

xG 1.06
  • Shots per match12.7
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match2.3

Heidenheim away

xG 1.55
  • Shots per match10.3
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 60 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Magdeburg
2.25
Expected goals, Heidenheim
1.45
Most likely score
2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
71%
Both clubs score
68%
Magdeburg score at least once
89%
Heidenheim score at least once
76%
Season sample
7 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Magdeburg win–
Draw–
Heidenheim win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Magdeburg goals, columns are Heidenheim goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%9%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%4%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.77 goals) and away average (1.52 goals).

Sample. Magdeburg 7 matches, Heidenheim 7, the league 60, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 11 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.2%25.8%
2.562.9%37.1%
3.538.7%61.3%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.579.0%21.0%
1.551.6%48.4%
2.521.0%79.0%
3.511.3%88.7%

Corners · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.576.8%23.2%
9.569.6%30.4%
10.558.9%41.1%

Yellow + red card events · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.2%1.8%
1.592.9%7.1%
2.583.9%16.1%
3.571.4%28.6%
4.551.8%48.2%
5.532.1%67.9%
6.517.9%82.1%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Magdeburg wins
3
Draws
1
Heidenheim wins
Goals / meeting
1.25
5 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Magdeburg clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Heidenheim clean sheets
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.00
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.75
4 with card data
  1. Heidenheim v MagdeburgSun, 7 May 2023 · 2. Bundesliga 2022-230–0HT 0–0
  2. Magdeburg v HeidenheimFri, 28 Oct 2022 · 2. Bundesliga 2022-231–1HT 0–1
  3. Magdeburg v HeidenheimFri, 29 Mar 2019 · 2. Bundesliga 2018-190–0HT 0–0
  4. Heidenheim v MagdeburgSat, 20 Oct 2018 · 2. Bundesliga 2018-193–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Magdeburg at homeWLLWWW
Heidenheim awayDWLLWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Magdeburg at home, Heidenheim away
  • 46%
    Both teams scored
    League 62%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 63%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 29%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 3.28
    4 + 3 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 80%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 52%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 8.5
    Corners per match
    League 11.19
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 78%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 70%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 5.2
    Cards per match
    League 4.61
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 72%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 52%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Magdeburg at home, Heidenheim away
Magdeburg (home)Heidenheim (away)
4Position3
LWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLWD
4Played3
2.25Points per match1.33
75%Win %33%
2.25Scored / match1.33
1.50Conceded / match2.00
3.75Avg total goals3.33
25%Both scored67%
75%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score0%
1.06xG for1.55
2.21xG against1.05

Half by half

MagdeburgHeidenheim
  • 1.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 1.001st half conceded / match1.33
  • 1.252nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 50%Leading at half-time67%
  • 75%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 75%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Magdeburg at home, Heidenheim away, this season.

Goals

MagdeburgHeidenheim
  • 2.25Scored / match1.33
  • 1.50Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.75Match total / match3.33
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 75%Scored 2+33%
  • 25%Conceded 1+67%
  • 25%Conceded 2+67%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 75%Match over 2.567%
  • 25%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

MagdeburgHeidenheim
  • 12.67Shots for10.33
  • 17.00Shots against13.00
  • 5.00On target for5.00
  • 7.00On target against5.67
  • 16%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.06xG for1.55
  • 2.21xG against1.05

Corners

MagdeburgHeidenheim
  • 4.00Corners for3.67
  • 3.67Corners against5.67
  • 7.67Match total9.33
  • 33%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.567%
  • 33%Over 9.533%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

MagdeburgHeidenheim
  • 3.67Cards for2.33
  • 2.33Cards against2.00
  • 6.00Match total4.33
  • 100%Over 2.567%
  • 67%Over 3.567%
  • 67%Over 4.533%
  • 67%Over 5.533%
  • 12.33Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Hertha61018
2Nurnberg71017
3Heidenheim7214
4Magdeburg7513
5Wolfsburg7712
6Kaiserslautern7212
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for 2. Bundesliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.