Motherwell vs Falkirk stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 29. Sat, 27 Feb 2027

vKick-off 15:00 UTC

DWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Motherwell have 3 scored home results and Falkirk 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Motherwell at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Falkirk away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Motherwell scored 1.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Falkirk scored 0.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.30 per club appearance across 92 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 7 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Motherwell: 0 wins; Falkirk: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Motherwell at home and Falkirk away.

Motherwell at home

xG 1.27

Shots per match16.0
On target per match4.7
Goals per match1.0

Falkirk away

xG 0.68

Shots per match10.0
On target per match2.5
Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 46 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Motherwell: 1.36
Expected goals, Falkirk: 1.05
Most likely score: 1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals: 43%
Both clubs score: 48%
Motherwell score at least once: 74%
Falkirk score at least once: 65%
Season sample: 7 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Motherwell win–

Draw–

Falkirk win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Motherwell goals, columns are Falkirk goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

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09%9%5%2%

112%13%7%2%1%

28%9%5%2%

34%4%2%1%

41%1%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.30 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Motherwell 7 matches, Falkirk 8, the league 46, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 46 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.9%	27.1%
2.5	54.2%	45.8%
3.5	20.8%	79.2%
4.5	10.4%	89.6%

First-half goals · 46 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	79.2%	20.8%
1.5	35.4%	64.6%
2.5	18.8%	81.3%
3.5	4.2%	95.8%

Corners · 42 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	79.5%	20.5%
9.5	68.2%	31.8%
10.5	63.6%	36.4%

Yellow + red card events · 42 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.2%	6.8%
1.5	88.6%	11.4%
2.5	70.5%	29.5%
3.5	61.4%	38.6%
4.5	29.5%	70.5%
5.5	18.2%	81.8%
6.5	11.4%	88.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Motherwell wins

Draws

Falkirk wins

Goals / meeting

1.80

9 goals in 5 meetings

Both scored

40%

2 of 5 meetings

Over 1.5

40%

2 of 5 meetings

Over 2.5

40%

2 of 5 meetings

Over 3.5

20%

1 of 5 meetings

Motherwell clean sheets

40%

2 of 5 meetings

Falkirk clean sheets

60%

3 of 5 meetings

Corners / meeting

7.60

5 with corner data

Cards / meeting

5.20

5 with card data

Motherwell v FalkirkSun, 9 Aug 2026 · Scottish Premiership 2026-270–0HT 0–0
Falkirk v MotherwellSat, 2 May 2026 · Scottish Premiership 2025-261–0HT 0–0
Motherwell v FalkirkSat, 4 Apr 2026 · Scottish Premiership 2025-262–3HT 1–2
Falkirk v MotherwellWed, 3 Dec 2025 · Scottish Premiership 2025-260–0HT 0–0
Motherwell v FalkirkSat, 18 Oct 2025 · Scottish Premiership 2025-261–2HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Motherwell at homeWDWLWL

Tue, 15 Septv Aberdeen0–4C 5–2 · Y 2–3
Wed, 2 Septv Dundee United3–0C 9–3 · Y 1–1
Thu, 20 Augv Freiburg1–3C ––– · Y –––
Thu, 13 Augv HJK2–0C ––– · Y –––
Sun, 9 Augv Falkirk0–0C 2–2 · Y 2–2
Thu, 23 Julv HB Tórshavn2–0C ––– · Y –––

Falkirk awayWDDLDD

Sat, 19 Sept@ St Johnstone1–1C 8–3 · Y 0–3
Sat, 5 Sept@ Dundee United1–1C 5–14 · Y 2–3
Sat, 29 Aug@ Celtic1–2C 3–6 · Y 4–1
Sun, 9 Aug@ Motherwell0–0C 2–2 · Y 2–2
Tue, 21 Jul@ Alloa1–1C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 11 Jul@ FC Edinburgh5–0C ––– · Y –––

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Motherwell at home, Falkirk away

38%
Both teams scored
League 52%
3 + 4 matches
71%
Over 0.5 goals
League 96%
3 + 4 matches
71%
Over 1.5 goals
League 74%
3 + 4 matches
46%
Over 2.5 goals
League 54%
3 + 4 matches
17%
Over 3.5 goals
League 20%
3 + 4 matches
0%
Over 4.5 goals
League 9%
3 + 4 matches
2.0
Avg total goals
League 2.61
3 + 4 matches
58%
1st half over 0.5
League 80%
3 + 4 matches
13%
1st half over 1.5
League 35%
3 + 4 matches
9.2
Corners per match
League 11.79
3 + 4 matches
54%
Corners over 8.5
League 81%
3 + 4 matches
42%
Corners over 9.5
League 69%
3 + 4 matches
42%
Corners over 10.5
League 64%
3 + 4 matches
4.0
Cards per match
League 3.83
3 + 4 matches
71%
Cards over 3.5
League 62%
3 + 4 matches
42%
Cards over 4.5
League 29%
3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Motherwell at home, Falkirk away

Motherwell (home)		Falkirk (away)
9	Position	11
DWL	Last 5, oldest to newest	DLDD
3	Played	4
1.33	Points per match	0.75
33%	Win %	0%
1.00	Scored / match	0.75
1.33	Conceded / match	1.00
2.33	Avg total goals	1.75
0%	Both scored	75%
67%	Clean sheets	25%
67%	Failed to score	25%
1.27	xG for	0.68
0.52	xG against	1.68

Half by half

MotherwellFalkirk

0.331st half scored / match0.25
0.331st half conceded / match0.50
0.672nd half scored / match0.50
1.002nd half conceded / match0.50
33%Leading at half-time25%
67%1st half over 0.550%
0%1st half over 1.525%
67%2nd half over 0.575%
67%2nd half over 1.525%
33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Motherwell at home, Falkirk away, this season.

Goals

MotherwellFalkirk

1.00Scored / match0.75
1.33Conceded / match1.00
2.33Match total / match1.75
33%Scored 1+75%
33%Scored 2+0%
33%Conceded 1+75%
33%Conceded 2+25%
67%Match over 1.575%
67%Match over 2.525%
33%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

MotherwellFalkirk

16.00Shots for10.00
8.67Shots against16.25
4.67On target for2.50
2.00On target against5.75
6%Shot conversion8%
1.27xG for0.68
0.52xG against1.68

Corners

MotherwellFalkirk

5.33Corners for4.50
2.33Corners against6.25
7.67Match total10.75
33%Over 7.575%
33%Over 8.575%
33%Over 9.550%
33%Over 10.550%
33%Over 11.525%

Cards

MotherwellFalkirk

1.67Cards for2.00
2.00Cards against2.25
3.67Match total4.25
67%Over 2.5100%
67%Over 3.575%
33%Over 4.550%
0%Over 5.50%
10.67Fouls committed15.50

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
7	St Johnstone	7	-1	8
8	Aberdeen	7	-1	8
9	Motherwell	7	-2	8
10	Hibernian	8	-4	7
11	Falkirk	8	-4	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	-11	5

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish Premiership matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.