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Plymouth v Leicester, EFL League One, Tue, 9 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Tue, 9 Feb 2027

PlymouthHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
LeicesterAway
WWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Home Park. Photo: Euanargyle, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Plymouth have 5 scored home results and Leicester 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Plymouth at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Leicester away: 1.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Plymouth scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Leicester scored 1.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Plymouth: 1 wins; Leicester: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Plymouth at home and Leicester away.

Plymouth at home

xG 1.42
  • Shots per match12.3
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match1.6

Leicester away

xG 1.44
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match5.5
  • Goals per match1.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Plymouth
2.25
Expected goals, Leicester
1.01
Most likely score
2-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
63%
Both clubs score
57%
Plymouth score at least once
89%
Leicester score at least once
64%
Season sample
10 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Plymouth win–
Draw–
Leicester win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Plymouth goals, columns are Leicester goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. Plymouth 10 matches, Leicester 8, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Plymouth wins
0
Draws
2
Leicester wins
Goals / meeting
2.33
7 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Plymouth clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Leicester clean sheets
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
13.33
3 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.67
3 with card data
  1. Leicester v PlymouthTue, 1 Sept 2026 · EFL League One 2026-272–0HT 2–0
  2. Plymouth v LeicesterFri, 12 Apr 2024 · EFL Championship 2023-241–0HT 1–0
  3. Leicester v PlymouthSat, 9 Dec 2023 · EFL Championship 2023-244–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Plymouth at homeLWWWLW
Leicester awayDLDWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Plymouth at home, Leicester away
  • 58%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    5 + 4 matches
  • 65%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 43%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 11.0
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.1
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Plymouth at home, Leicester away
Plymouth (home)Leicester (away)
1Position17
LWWLWLast 5, oldest to newestDDWD
5Played4
1.80Points per match1.50
60%Win %25%
1.60Scored / match1.50
1.00Conceded / match1.25
2.60Avg total goals2.75
40%Both scored75%
40%Clean sheets25%
20%Failed to score25%
1.42xG for1.44
1.14xG against1.53

Half by half

PlymouthLeicester
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.25
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 40%Leading at half-time50%
  • 80%1st half over 0.550%
  • 60%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 60%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Plymouth at home, Leicester away, this season.

Goals

PlymouthLeicester
  • 1.60Scored / match1.50
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.25
  • 2.60Match total / match2.75
  • 80%Scored 1+75%
  • 60%Scored 2+25%
  • 60%Conceded 1+75%
  • 20%Conceded 2+25%
  • 80%Match over 1.575%
  • 60%Match over 2.525%
  • 20%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

PlymouthLeicester
  • 12.25Shots for16.00
  • 9.50Shots against13.25
  • 3.50On target for5.50
  • 1.75On target against3.25
  • 12%Shot conversion9%
  • 1.42xG for1.44
  • 1.14xG against1.53

Corners

PlymouthLeicester
  • 5.00Corners for6.75
  • 5.25Corners against5.00
  • 10.25Match total11.75
  • 75%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.575%
  • 50%Over 9.550%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.550%

Cards

PlymouthLeicester
  • 2.00Cards for2.25
  • 1.75Cards against2.25
  • 3.75Match total4.50
  • 75%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.525%
  • 25%Over 4.525%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 12.75Fouls committed9.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Plymouth10619
2Bradford9317
3Stockport9916
15Wycombe9-610
16Doncaster809
17Leicester8-49
18Blackpool8-18
19Barnsley8-78
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.