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Swansea v Bristol City, EFL Championship, Tue, 16 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 38. Tue, 16 Mar 2027

SwanseaHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Bristol CityAway
DLWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Swansea have 5 scored home results and Bristol City 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Swansea at home: 2.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Bristol City away: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Swansea scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Bristol City scored 1.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 10 pooled club appearances (70.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Swansea: 5 wins; Bristol City: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Swansea at home and Bristol City away.

Swansea at home

xG 1.67
  • Shots per match11.5
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match1.4

Bristol City away

xG 1.65
  • Shots per match15.5
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Swansea
1.88
Expected goals, Bristol City
0.65
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
46%
Both clubs score
40%
Swansea score at least once
85%
Bristol City score at least once
48%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Swansea win–
Draw–
Bristol City win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Swansea goals, columns are Bristol City goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Swansea 9 matches, Bristol City 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Swansea wins
2
Draws
3
Bristol City wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
20 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Swansea clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Bristol City clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.70
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.20
10 with card data
  1. Swansea v Bristol CitySat, 21 Feb 2026 · EFL Championship 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Bristol City v SwanseaSat, 22 Nov 2025 · EFL Championship 2025-263–0HT 2–0
  3. Bristol City v SwanseaSun, 9 Feb 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  4. Swansea v Bristol CitySun, 29 Sept 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  5. Bristol City v SwanseaSun, 10 Mar 2024 · EFL Championship 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  6. Swansea v Bristol CitySat, 2 Sept 2023 · EFL Championship 2023-241–2HT 1–0
  7. Swansea v Bristol CitySun, 19 Mar 2023 · EFL Championship 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  8. Bristol City v SwanseaSat, 29 Oct 2022 · EFL Championship 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  9. Swansea v Bristol CitySun, 13 Feb 2022 · EFL Championship 2021-223–1HT 0–1
  10. Bristol City v SwanseaFri, 20 Aug 2021 · EFL Championship 2021-220–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Swansea at homeLDWDWW
Bristol City awayLDWWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Swansea at home, Bristol City away
  • 70%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 8.8
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.0
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Swansea at home, Bristol City away
Swansea (home)Bristol City (away)
1Position11
DWDWWLast 5, oldest to newestDWWLD
5Played5
2.20Points per match1.60
60%Win %40%
1.40Scored / match1.80
0.40Conceded / match1.80
1.80Avg total goals3.60
40%Both scored100%
60%Clean sheets0%
40%Failed to score0%
1.67xG for1.65
1.18xG against1.46

Half by half

SwanseaBristol City
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.201st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.602nd half scored / match1.20
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 40%Leading at half-time20%
  • 60%1st half over 0.580%
  • 40%1st half over 1.540%
  • 40%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.580%
  • 20%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Swansea at home, Bristol City away, this season.

Goals

SwanseaBristol City
  • 1.40Scored / match1.80
  • 0.40Conceded / match1.80
  • 1.80Match total / match3.60
  • 60%Scored 1+100%
  • 60%Scored 2+60%
  • 40%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+40%
  • 60%Match over 1.5100%
  • 40%Match over 2.580%
  • 20%Match over 3.560%

Shots and xG

SwanseaBristol City
  • 11.50Shots for15.50
  • 11.75Shots against11.00
  • 4.50On target for5.75
  • 3.00On target against3.25
  • 11%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.67xG for1.65
  • 1.18xG against1.46

Corners

SwanseaBristol City
  • 4.75Corners for4.50
  • 3.50Corners against4.75
  • 8.25Match total9.25
  • 75%Over 7.550%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 0%Over 9.550%
  • 0%Over 10.525%
  • 0%Over 11.525%

Cards

SwanseaBristol City
  • 1.75Cards for0.75
  • 1.75Cards against1.75
  • 3.50Match total2.50
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 50%Over 3.50%
  • 0%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 9.25Fouls committed11.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Swansea9820
2Middlesbrough9518
3West Ham91116
9Millwall9114
10West Brom9114
11Bristol City9-114
12Charlton9-313
13Blackburn9112
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.