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MatchDaySync

Tottenham v Arsenal, Premier League, Sat, 5 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 14. Sat, 5 Dec 2026

TottenhamHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
ArsenalAway
LDDLDLeague form, oldest to newestWWWLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tottenham have 3 scored home results and Arsenal 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tottenham at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Arsenal away: 2.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tottenham scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Arsenal scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 6 pooled club appearances (16.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Tottenham: 1 wins; Arsenal: 8 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Tottenham at home and Arsenal away.

Tottenham at home

xG 1.10
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Arsenal away

xG 1.52
  • Shots per match9.7
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tottenham
0.32
Expected goals, Arsenal
1.58
Most likely score
0-1 (24%)
Three or more goals
29%
Both clubs score
22%
Tottenham score at least once
27%
Arsenal score at least once
79%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tottenham win–
Draw–
Arsenal win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tottenham goals, columns are Arsenal goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
015%24%19%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%
15%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
21%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Tottenham 6 matches, Arsenal 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Tottenham wins
1
Draws
8
Arsenal wins
Goals / meeting
3.60
36 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Tottenham clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Arsenal clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.70
10 with card data
  1. Tottenham v ArsenalSun, 22 Feb 2026 · Premier League 2025-261–4HT 1–1
  2. Arsenal v TottenhamSun, 23 Nov 2025 · Premier League 2025-264–1HT 2–0
  3. Arsenal v TottenhamWed, 15 Jan 2025 · Premier League 2024-252–1HT 2–1
  4. Tottenham v ArsenalSun, 15 Sept 2024 · Premier League 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  5. Tottenham v ArsenalSun, 28 Apr 2024 · Premier League 2023-242–3HT 0–3
  6. Arsenal v TottenhamSun, 24 Sept 2023 · Premier League 2023-242–2HT 1–1
  7. Tottenham v ArsenalSun, 15 Jan 2023 · Premier League 2022-230–2HT 0–2
  8. Arsenal v TottenhamSat, 1 Oct 2022 · Premier League 2022-233–1HT 1–1
  9. Tottenham v ArsenalThu, 12 May 2022 · Premier League 2021-223–0HT 2–0
  10. Arsenal v TottenhamSun, 26 Sept 2021 · Premier League 2021-223–1HT 3–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tottenham at homeDWWLDL
Arsenal awayWWWWWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Arsenal away
  • 17%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 10.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Arsenal away
Tottenham (home)Arsenal (away)
18Position2
LDLLast 5, oldest to newestWWL
3Played3
0.33Points per match2.00
0%Win %67%
0.67Scored / match1.00
1.67Conceded / match1.00
2.33Avg total goals2.00
33%Both scored0%
33%Clean sheets67%
67%Failed to score33%
1.10xG for1.52
1.01xG against1.14

Half by half

TottenhamArsenal
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.672nd half scored / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 33%1st half over 0.533%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tottenham at home, Arsenal away, this season.

Goals

TottenhamArsenal
  • 0.67Scored / match1.00
  • 1.67Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.33Match total / match2.00
  • 33%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+33%
  • 67%Conceded 2+33%
  • 67%Match over 1.567%
  • 33%Match over 2.533%
  • 33%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

TottenhamArsenal
  • 17.00Shots for9.67
  • 12.67Shots against12.00
  • 5.00On target for3.00
  • 3.67On target against2.67
  • 4%Shot conversion10%
  • 1.10xG for1.52
  • 1.01xG against1.14

Corners

TottenhamArsenal
  • 8.33Corners for4.00
  • 4.67Corners against3.67
  • 13.00Match total7.67
  • 100%Over 7.533%
  • 100%Over 8.533%
  • 100%Over 9.533%
  • 100%Over 10.533%
  • 67%Over 11.50%

Cards

TottenhamArsenal
  • 0.67Cards for1.33
  • 2.00Cards against4.67
  • 2.67Match total6.00
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.5100%
  • 0%Over 4.567%
  • 0%Over 5.533%
  • 12.67Fouls committed9.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
16Sunderland6-64
17Bournemouth6-63
18Tottenham6-63
19Coventry5-93
20Fulham6-42
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.