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MatchDaySync

Tottenham v Bournemouth, Premier League, Sat, 26 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 17. Sat, 26 Dec 2026

TottenhamHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
BournemouthAway
LDDLDLeague form, oldest to newestDDDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tottenham have 3 scored home results and Bournemouth 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tottenham at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Bournemouth away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tottenham scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Bournemouth scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Tottenham: 4 wins; Bournemouth: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Tottenham at home and Bournemouth away.

Tottenham at home

xG 1.10
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Bournemouth away

xG 1.00
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tottenham
0.82
Expected goals, Bournemouth
1.10
Most likely score
0-1 (16%)
Three or more goals
30%
Both clubs score
38%
Tottenham score at least once
56%
Bournemouth score at least once
67%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tottenham win–
Draw–
Bournemouth win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tottenham goals, columns are Bournemouth goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
015%16%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Tottenham 6 matches, Bournemouth 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Tottenham wins
2
Draws
4
Bournemouth wins
Goals / meeting
3.20
32 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Tottenham clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Bournemouth clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
12.80
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.50
10 with card data
  1. Bournemouth v TottenhamWed, 7 Jan 2026 · Premier League 2025-263–2HT 2–1
  2. Tottenham v BournemouthSat, 30 Aug 2025 · Premier League 2025-260–1HT 0–1
  3. Tottenham v BournemouthSun, 9 Mar 2025 · Premier League 2024-252–2HT 0–1
  4. Bournemouth v TottenhamThu, 5 Dec 2024 · Premier League 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  5. Tottenham v BournemouthSun, 31 Dec 2023 · Premier League 2023-243–1HT 1–0
  6. Bournemouth v TottenhamSat, 26 Aug 2023 · Premier League 2023-240–2HT 0–1
  7. Tottenham v BournemouthSat, 15 Apr 2023 · Premier League 2022-232–3HT 1–1
  8. Bournemouth v TottenhamSat, 29 Oct 2022 · Premier League 2022-232–3HT 1–0
  9. Bournemouth v TottenhamThu, 9 Jul 2020 · Premier League 2019-200–0HT 0–0
  10. Tottenham v BournemouthSat, 30 Nov 2019 · Premier League 2019-203–2HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tottenham at homeDWWLDL
Bournemouth awayWDLDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Bournemouth away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 11.0
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Bournemouth away
Tottenham (home)Bournemouth (away)
18Position17
LDLLast 5, oldest to newestLDL
3Played3
0.33Points per match0.33
0%Win %0%
0.67Scored / match1.33
1.67Conceded / match3.00
2.33Avg total goals4.33
33%Both scored100%
33%Clean sheets0%
67%Failed to score0%
1.10xG for1.00
1.01xG against1.54

Half by half

TottenhamBournemouth
  • 0.001st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.33
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match2.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time67%
  • 33%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.567%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tottenham at home, Bournemouth away, this season.

Goals

TottenhamBournemouth
  • 0.67Scored / match1.33
  • 1.67Conceded / match3.00
  • 2.33Match total / match4.33
  • 33%Scored 1+100%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+100%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 33%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

TottenhamBournemouth
  • 17.00Shots for11.00
  • 12.67Shots against10.50
  • 5.00On target for4.50
  • 3.67On target against4.00
  • 4%Shot conversion14%
  • 1.10xG for1.00
  • 1.01xG against1.54

Corners

TottenhamBournemouth
  • 8.33Corners for3.00
  • 4.67Corners against6.00
  • 13.00Match total9.00
  • 100%Over 7.550%
  • 100%Over 8.550%
  • 100%Over 9.550%
  • 100%Over 10.550%
  • 67%Over 11.50%

Cards

TottenhamBournemouth
  • 0.67Cards for2.50
  • 2.00Cards against1.50
  • 2.67Match total4.00
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.550%
  • 0%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 12.67Fouls committed14.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
15Crystal Palace5-54
16Sunderland6-64
17Bournemouth6-63
18Tottenham6-63
19Coventry5-93
20Fulham6-42
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.