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MatchDaySync

Tottenham v Brighton, Premier League, Tue, 29 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 18. Tue, 29 Dec 2026

TottenhamHome
vKick-off 19:30 UTC
BrightonAway
LDDLDLeague form, oldest to newestLDWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Tottenham have 3 scored home results and Brighton 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Tottenham at home: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Brighton away: 2.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Tottenham scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Brighton scored 3.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Tottenham: 4 wins; Brighton: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Tottenham at home and Brighton away.

Tottenham at home

xG 1.10
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Brighton away

xG 2.10
  • Shots per match18.5
  • On target per match6.5
  • Goals per match3.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Tottenham
0.32
Expected goals, Brighton
2.84
Most likely score
0-2 (17%)
Three or more goals
61%
Both clubs score
26%
Tottenham score at least once
27%
Brighton score at least once
94%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Tottenham win–
Draw–
Brighton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Tottenham goals, columns are Brighton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%12%17%16%12%7%3%1%
11%4%5%5%4%2%1%under 1%
2under 1%1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Tottenham 6 matches, Brighton 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Tottenham wins
2
Draws
4
Brighton wins
Goals / meeting
3.40
34 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Tottenham clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Brighton clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.10
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.20
10 with card data
  1. Tottenham v BrightonSat, 18 Apr 2026 · Premier League 2025-262–2HT 1–1
  2. Brighton v TottenhamSat, 20 Sept 2025 · Premier League 2025-262–2HT 2–1
  3. Tottenham v BrightonSun, 25 May 2025 · Premier League 2024-251–4HT 1–0
  4. Brighton v TottenhamSun, 6 Oct 2024 · Premier League 2024-253–2HT 0–2
  5. Tottenham v BrightonSat, 10 Feb 2024 · Premier League 2023-242–1HT 0–1
  6. Brighton v TottenhamThu, 28 Dec 2023 · Premier League 2023-244–2HT 2–0
  7. Tottenham v BrightonSat, 8 Apr 2023 · Premier League 2022-232–1HT 1–1
  8. Brighton v TottenhamSat, 8 Oct 2022 · Premier League 2022-230–1HT 0–1
  9. Tottenham v BrightonSat, 16 Apr 2022 · Premier League 2021-220–1HT 0–0
  10. Brighton v TottenhamWed, 16 Mar 2022 · Premier League 2021-220–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Tottenham at homeDWWLDL
Brighton awayLDLWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Brighton away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 11.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.6
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Tottenham at home, Brighton away
Tottenham (home)Brighton (away)
18Position3
LDLLast 5, oldest to newestLWW
3Played3
0.33Points per match2.00
0%Win %67%
0.67Scored / match3.33
1.67Conceded / match1.33
2.33Avg total goals4.67
33%Both scored33%
33%Clean sheets67%
67%Failed to score0%
1.10xG for2.10
1.01xG against2.14

Half by half

TottenhamBrighton
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.331st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match2.67
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 0%Leading at half-time33%
  • 33%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 0%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Tottenham at home, Brighton away, this season.

Goals

TottenhamBrighton
  • 0.67Scored / match3.33
  • 1.67Conceded / match1.33
  • 2.33Match total / match4.67
  • 33%Scored 1+100%
  • 33%Scored 2+100%
  • 67%Conceded 1+33%
  • 67%Conceded 2+33%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.567%
  • 33%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

TottenhamBrighton
  • 17.00Shots for18.50
  • 12.67Shots against15.50
  • 5.00On target for6.50
  • 3.67On target against6.00
  • 4%Shot conversion22%
  • 1.10xG for2.10
  • 1.01xG against2.14

Corners

TottenhamBrighton
  • 8.33Corners for5.00
  • 4.67Corners against4.50
  • 13.00Match total9.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.550%
  • 100%Over 9.550%
  • 100%Over 10.550%
  • 67%Over 11.50%

Cards

TottenhamBrighton
  • 0.67Cards for1.50
  • 2.00Cards against1.00
  • 2.67Match total2.50
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 0%Over 3.550%
  • 0%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 12.67Fouls committed13.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
5Chelsea6210
16Sunderland6-64
17Bournemouth6-63
18Tottenham6-63
19Coventry5-93
20Fulham6-42
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.