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USC Paredes v Varzim SC, Liga 3, Sun, 20 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 13. Sun, 20 Dec 2026

USC ParedesHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
Varzim SCAway
WLWWDLeague form, oldest to newestWWWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, USC Paredes have 3 scored home results and Varzim SC 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: USC Paredes at home: 2.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Varzim SC away: 3.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. USC Paredes scored 2.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Varzim SC scored 2.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.21 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 5 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. USC Paredes: 1 wins; Varzim SC: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, USC Paredes
1.67
Expected goals, Varzim SC
1.38
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
59%
Both clubs score
61%
USC Paredes score at least once
81%
Varzim SC score at least once
75%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

USC Paredes win–
Draw–
Varzim SC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are USC Paredes goals, columns are Varzim SC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%11%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%9%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%5%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.09 goals).

Sample. USC Paredes 6 matches, Varzim SC 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 21 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.565.5%34.5%
2.546.6%53.4%
3.527.6%72.4%
4.513.8%86.2%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.527.6%72.4%
2.515.5%84.5%
3.55.2%94.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
USC Paredes wins
0
Draws
0
Varzim SC wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
USC Paredes clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Varzim SC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Varzim SC v USC ParedesSat, 5 Sept 2026 · Liga 3 2026-270–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
USC Paredes at homeWLWW
Varzim SC awayWWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
USC Paredes at home, Varzim SC away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 87%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 46%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.43
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 27%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
USC Paredes at home, Varzim SC away
USC Paredes (home)Varzim SC (away)
2Position6
WLWLast 5, oldest to newestWW
3Played2
2.00Points per match3.00
67%Win %100%
2.00Scored / match2.50
1.33Conceded / match0.50
3.33Avg total goals3.00
100%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

USC ParedesVarzim SC
  • 1.331st half scored / match1.50
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.672nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 67%Leading at half-time100%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 67%1st half over 1.550%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 67%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

USC Paredes at home, Varzim SC away, this season.

Goals

USC ParedesVarzim SC
  • 2.00Scored / match2.50
  • 1.33Conceded / match0.50
  • 3.33Match total / match3.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 67%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+50%
  • 33%Conceded 2+0%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.550%
  • 33%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Liga 3 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.