Varzim SC vs CD Trofense stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 10. Sat, 28 Nov 2026

vKick-off 18:00 UTC

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Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Varzim SC have 3 scored home results and CD Trofense 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Varzim SC at home: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches); CD Trofense away: 0.50 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Varzim SC scored 1.00 per home match (3 measured matches); CD Trofense scored 0.00 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.21 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 5 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Varzim SC: 2 wins; CD Trofense: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Varzim SC: 2.03
Expected goals, CD Trofense: 0.30
Most likely score: 2-0 (20%)
Three or more goals: 41%
Both clubs score: 22%
Varzim SC score at least once: 87%
CD Trofense score at least once: 26%
Season sample: 5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Varzim SC win–

Draw–

CD Trofense win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Varzim SC goals, columns are CD Trofense goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

010%3%

120%6%1%

220%6%1%

314%4%1%

47%2%

53%1%

61%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.09 goals).

Sample. Varzim SC 5 matches, CD Trofense 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 20 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	65.5%	34.5%
2.5	46.6%	53.4%
3.5	27.6%	72.4%
4.5	13.8%	86.2%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	27.6%	72.4%
2.5	15.5%	84.5%
3.5	5.2%	94.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Varzim SC wins

Draws

CD Trofense wins

Goals / meeting

3.50

7 goals in 2 meetings · small sample

Both scored

50%