Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Watford v Bolton, EFL Championship, Sat, 19 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 22. Sat, 19 Dec 2026

WatfordHome
vKick-off 12:30 UTC
BoltonAway
LWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Vicarage Road. Photo: Jbb503, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Watford have 5 scored home results and Bolton 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Watford at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Bolton away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Watford scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); Bolton scored 1.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Watford at home and Bolton away.

Watford at home

xG 1.02
  • Shots per match13.3
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.2

Bolton away

xG 1.09
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Watford
1.15
Expected goals, Bolton
1.29
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
44%
Both clubs score
50%
Watford score at least once
68%
Bolton score at least once
73%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Watford win–
Draw–
Bolton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Watford goals, columns are Bolton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%11%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%13%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Watford 9 matches, Bolton 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Watford at homeWLDWLL
Bolton awayDLDLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Watford at home, Bolton away
  • 65%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.4
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Watford at home, Bolton away
Watford (home)Bolton (away)
20Position17
WDWLLLast 5, oldest to newestDLLW
5Played4
1.40Points per match1.00
40%Win %25%
1.20Scored / match1.50
1.80Conceded / match2.50
3.00Avg total goals4.00
80%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets25%
20%Failed to score50%
1.02xG for1.09
1.64xG against1.84

Half by half

WatfordBolton
  • 0.601st half scored / match0.75
  • 1.201st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.75
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 60%1st half over 1.550%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 0%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Watford at home, Bolton away, this season.

Goals

WatfordBolton
  • 1.20Scored / match1.50
  • 1.80Conceded / match2.50
  • 3.00Match total / match4.00
  • 80%Scored 1+50%
  • 40%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+75%
  • 40%Conceded 2+75%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 80%Match over 2.575%
  • 20%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

WatfordBolton
  • 13.25Shots for10.50
  • 16.50Shots against13.25
  • 3.75On target for3.75
  • 4.00On target against6.00
  • 11%Shot conversion14%
  • 1.02xG for1.09
  • 1.64xG against1.84

Corners

WatfordBolton
  • 3.50Corners for4.50
  • 7.75Corners against5.25
  • 11.25Match total9.75
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.575%
  • 75%Over 9.575%
  • 75%Over 10.550%
  • 75%Over 11.525%

Cards

WatfordBolton
  • 2.75Cards for1.50
  • 2.00Cards against0.50
  • 4.75Match total2.00
  • 75%Over 2.550%
  • 75%Over 3.50%
  • 25%Over 4.50%
  • 25%Over 5.50%
  • 10.75Fouls committed11.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
15Wrexham9-311
16Lincoln9-411
17Bolton9-510
18Norwich9-29
19Portsmouth7-18
20Watford9-78
21Cardiff9-37
22Burnley9-47
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.