EFL Championship Predictions: Next Fixtures, Estimated

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Cardiff v Birmingham

Expected goals 1.17 to 1.40 · most likely 1-1 (13%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

QPR v Swansea

Expected goals 0.74 to 0.92 · most likely 0-0 (19%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Stoke v Bristol City

Expected goals 1.88 to 1.20 · most likely 1-1 (10%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Preston v West Brom

Expected goals 0.69 to 1.23 · most likely 0-1 (18%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Lincoln v Burnley

Expected goals 1.15 to 1.10 · most likely 1-1 (13%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

West Ham v Southampton

Expected goals 2.49 to 1.97 · most likely 2-1 (7%) · from 9 and 8 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Blackburn v Wrexham

Expected goals 1.75 to 1.00 · most likely 1-0 (11%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 12

Wolves v Watford

Expected goals 2.28 to 0.67 · most likely 2-0 (14%) · from 8 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Fri 30 Oct · 20:00UTC · Matchday 13

Sheffield United v Wrexham

Expected goals 1.50 to 0.85 · most likely 1-0 (14%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 12:30UTC · Matchday 13

Stoke v Preston

Expected goals 2.31 to 0.80 · most likely 2-0 (12%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 12:30UTC · Matchday 13

Norwich v Watford

Expected goals 2.29 to 1.02 · most likely 2-1 (10%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 12:30UTC · Matchday 13

Lincoln v Birmingham

Expected goals 0.74 to 1.10 · most likely 0-1 (17%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Wolves v Cardiff

Expected goals 2.28 to 1.05 · most likely 2-1 (10%) · from 8 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

West Ham v West Brom

Expected goals 2.00 to 0.92 · most likely 1-0 (11%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Swansea v Blackburn

Expected goals 1.88 to 0.75 · most likely 1-0 (14%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Bolton v Bristol City

Expected goals 1.50 to 1.57 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Middlesbrough v Charlton

Expected goals 1.80 to 0.74 · most likely 1-0 (14%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Burnley v Portsmouth

Expected goals 1.61 to 1.51 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 9 and 7 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Millwall v Derby

Expected goals 2.31 to 0.92 · most likely 2-0 (11%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 13

Southampton v QPR

Expected goals 1.65 to 0.95 · most likely 1-0 (12%) · from 8 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

QPR v Burnley

Expected goals 1.80 to 0.80 · most likely 1-0 (13%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Derby v Norwich

Expected goals 1.47 to 1.96 · most likely 1-1 (9%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Blackburn v Stoke

Expected goals 1.75 to 1.50 · most likely 1-1 (10%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Watford v Lincoln

Expected goals 0.74 to 0.75 · most likely 0-0 (22%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Charlton v Bolton

Expected goals 1.31 to 1.02 · most likely 1-1 (13%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Portsmouth v Swansea

Expected goals 0.78 to 1.48 · most likely 0-1 (15%) · from 7 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Preston v Sheffield United

Expected goals 0.85 to 1.48 · most likely 0-1 (14%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 14

Birmingham v Millwall

Expected goals 1.88 to 1.35 · most likely 1-1 (10%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Tue 3 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 14

West Brom v Southampton

Expected goals 1.08 to 1.48 · most likely 1-1 (12%) · from 9 and 8 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Wed 4 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Cardiff v West Ham

Expected goals 1.27 to 2.48 · most likely 1-2 (9%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Wed 4 Nov · 19:45UTC · Matchday 14

Wrexham v Middlesbrough

Expected goals 1.16 to 1.70 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Wed 4 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 14

Bristol City v Wolves

Expected goals 1.43 to 1.69 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 9 and 8 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Fri 6 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 15

Derby v Bolton

Expected goals 1.31 to 1.38 · most likely 1-1 (12%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 12:30UTC · Matchday 15

Wrexham v Wolves

Expected goals 1.19 to 1.69 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 9 and 8 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 12:30UTC · Matchday 15

Portsmouth v Stoke

Expected goals 1.45 to 1.48 · most likely 1-1 (11%) · from 7 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 12:30UTC · Matchday 15

Bristol City v Norwich

Expected goals 2.20 to 1.70 · most likely 2-1 (8%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

QPR v Lincoln

Expected goals 1.17 to 0.43 · most likely 1-0 (24%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Cardiff v Burnley

Expected goals 1.80 to 1.40 · most likely 1-1 (10%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Charlton v Sheffield United

Expected goals 0.85 to 1.02 · most likely 0-1 (16%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Watford v Middlesbrough

Expected goals 0.81 to 1.83 · most likely 0-1 (13%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Blackburn v West Ham

Expected goals 1.62 to 2.30 · most likely 1-2 (9%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

West Brom v Millwall

Expected goals 1.45 to 1.11 · most likely 1-1 (12%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Preston v Southampton

Expected goals 0.87 to 2.63 · most likely 0-2 (11%) · from 9 and 8 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 15

Birmingham v Swansea

Expected goals 0.88 to 1.27 · most likely 0-1 (15%) · from 9 and 9 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78.7%	21.3%
2.5	62.0%	38.0%
3.5	34.3%	65.7%
4.5	10.2%	89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	78.7%	21.3%
1.5	39.8%	60.2%
2.5	16.7%	83.3%
3.5	8.3%	91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	70.1%	29.9%
9.5	58.8%	41.2%
10.5	49.5%	50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.9%	3.1%
1.5	92.8%	7.2%
2.5	75.3%	24.7%
3.5	48.5%	51.5%
4.5	36.1%	63.9%
5.5	18.6%	81.4%
6.5	12.4%	87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

EFL Championship

EFL Championship on MatchDaySync

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League tables

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Streaks, referees and rankings

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A prototype, labelled as one

Read before kick-off

A sample, not a certainty