Fri 23 Oct · · Round 9
Kortrijk v Mechelen
Expected goals 0.38 to 0.95 · most likely 0-0 (26%) · from 8 and 7 matches
Goal, corner and card probabilities
Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.
Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.
Full-time goals · 68 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 2.5 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 3.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 4.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
First-half goals · 68 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 1.5 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 2.5 | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| 3.5 | 4.3% | 95.7% |
Corners · 63 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 9.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 10.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| 1.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 2.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 3.5 | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 4.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| 5.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 6.5 | 6.2% | 93.8% |
Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.