Sat 24 Oct · · Matchday 8
Toulouse v Troyes
Expected goals 2.62 to 0.87 · most likely 2-0 (11%) · from 6 and 5 matches
Goal, corner and card probabilities
Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.
Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.
Full-time goals · 51 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 2.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 3.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 4.5 | 13.2% | 86.8% |
First-half goals · 51 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 1.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 2.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| 3.5 | 3.8% | 96.2% |
Corners · 45 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 9.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 10.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 2.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 3.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 4.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| 5.5 | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| 6.5 | 2.1% | 97.9% |
Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.