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Burton v Plymouth, EFL League One, Tue, 13 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 41. Tue, 13 Apr 2027

BurtonHome
vKick-off 18:45 UTC
PlymouthAway
LDWLLLeague form, oldest to newestWWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Burton have 5 scored home results and Plymouth 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Burton at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Plymouth away: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Burton scored 2.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Plymouth scored 2.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 10 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Burton: 1 wins; Plymouth: 5 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Burton at home and Plymouth away.

Burton at home

xG 1.02
  • Shots per match9.4
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match2.0

Plymouth away

xG 1.74
  • Shots per match17.2
  • On target per match6.4
  • Goals per match2.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Burton
1.20
Expected goals, Plymouth
1.94
Most likely score
1-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
61%
Both clubs score
60%
Burton score at least once
70%
Plymouth score at least once
86%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Burton win–
Draw–
Plymouth win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Burton goals, columns are Plymouth goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%8%8%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
15%10%10%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%
23%6%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
31%2%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. Burton 10 matches, Plymouth 10, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Burton wins
4
Draws
5
Plymouth wins
Goals / meeting
2.20
22 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Burton clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Plymouth clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.60
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.60
10 with card data
  1. Plymouth v BurtonSat, 26 Sept 2026 · EFL League One 2026-270–1HT 0–0
  2. Plymouth v BurtonSun, 4 Jan 2026 · EFL League One 2025-263–0HT 1–0
  3. Burton v PlymouthSat, 27 Sept 2025 · EFL League One 2025-260–4HT 0–2
  4. Plymouth v BurtonSat, 29 Apr 2023 · EFL League One 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  5. Burton v PlymouthSat, 19 Nov 2022 · EFL League One 2022-232–2HT 1–0
  6. Burton v PlymouthSat, 9 Apr 2022 · EFL League One 2021-220–0HT 0–0
  7. Plymouth v BurtonSat, 9 Oct 2021 · EFL League One 2021-222–1HT 2–0
  8. Burton v PlymouthSat, 17 Apr 2021 · EFL League One 2020-211–1HT 0–0
  9. Plymouth v BurtonSat, 10 Oct 2020 · EFL League One 2020-212–0HT 1–0
  10. Burton v PlymouthSat, 29 Dec 2018 · EFL League One 2018-191–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Burton at homeDWDDDL
Plymouth awayDLWWWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Burton at home, Plymouth away
  • 80%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 3.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.2
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 3.2
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Burton at home, Plymouth away
Burton (home)Plymouth (away)
10Position1
DWDDLLast 5, oldest to newestDLWWW
5Played5
1.20Points per match2.00
20%Win %60%
2.00Scored / match2.00
1.80Conceded / match1.40
3.80Avg total goals3.40
100%Both scored60%
0%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score20%
1.02xG for1.74
1.47xG against1.53

Half by half

BurtonPlymouth
  • 1.201st half scored / match0.60
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.802nd half scored / match1.40
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 40%Leading at half-time40%
  • 80%1st half over 0.580%
  • 80%1st half over 1.540%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 40%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Burton at home, Plymouth away, this season.

Goals

BurtonPlymouth
  • 2.00Scored / match2.00
  • 1.80Conceded / match1.40
  • 3.80Match total / match3.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 60%Scored 2+60%
  • 100%Conceded 1+80%
  • 60%Conceded 2+60%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 80%Match over 2.540%
  • 80%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

BurtonPlymouth
  • 9.40Shots for17.20
  • 11.80Shots against14.00
  • 3.00On target for6.40
  • 4.60On target against4.20
  • 21%Shot conversion12%
  • 1.02xG for1.74
  • 1.47xG against1.53

Corners

BurtonPlymouth
  • 2.60Corners for6.20
  • 6.80Corners against4.80
  • 9.40Match total11.00
  • 80%Over 7.5100%
  • 80%Over 8.5100%
  • 40%Over 9.5100%
  • 40%Over 10.540%
  • 20%Over 11.520%

Cards

BurtonPlymouth
  • 0.80Cards for1.20
  • 2.00Cards against2.40
  • 2.80Match total3.60
  • 40%Over 2.5100%
  • 20%Over 3.560%
  • 20%Over 4.50%
  • 20%Over 5.50%
  • 10.60Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Plymouth10619
2Bradford9317
3Stockport9916
8Oxford7714
9Stevenage8412
10Burton10-212
11AFC Wimbledon9-312
12Leyton Orient9211
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.