Premier League Predictions: Next Fixtures, Estimated

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Arsenal v Everton

Expected goals 0.76 to 0.63 · most likely 0-0 (25%) · from 6 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Coventry v Fulham

Expected goals 0.25 to 1.26 · most likely 0-1 (28%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 24 Oct · 16:30UTC · Matchday 8

Chelsea v Tottenham

Expected goals 2.85 to 0.68 · most likely 2-0 (12%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 25 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Liverpool v Brighton

Expected goals 0.89 to 1.51 · most likely 0-1 (14%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 25 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Expected goals 1.64 to 2.50 · most likely 1-2 (8%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 25 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Man United v Bournemouth

Expected goals 2.47 to 1.10 · most likely 2-1 (9%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 25 Oct · 14:00UTC · Matchday 8

Hull v Brentford

Expected goals 0.91 to 1.01 · most likely 0-1 (15%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 25 Oct · 16:30UTC · Matchday 8

Sunderland v Leeds

Expected goals 0.63 to 1.68 · most likely 0-1 (17%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 12:30UTC · Matchday 9

Chelsea v Man United

Expected goals 2.85 to 2.05 · most likely 2-2 (6%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 9

Man City v Brighton

Expected goals 1.65 to 1.89 · most likely 1-1 (9%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 9

Bournemouth v Leeds

Expected goals 0.74 to 1.82 · most likely 0-1 (14%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 9

Coventry v Sunderland

Expected goals 0.30 to 1.26 · most likely 0-1 (26%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 9

Hull v Ipswich

Expected goals 1.83 to 0.76 · most likely 1-0 (14%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Matchday 9

Brentford v Nott'm Forest

Expected goals 1.52 to 0.50 · most likely 1-0 (20%) · from 6 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 15:00UTC · Round 9

Newcastle v Everton

Expected goals 0.82 to 1.36 · most likely 0-1 (15%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 17:30UTC · Matchday 9

Tottenham v Crystal Palace

Expected goals 0.84 to 1.14 · most likely 0-1 (16%) · from 6 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 31 Oct · 20:00UTC · Matchday 9

Aston Villa v Fulham

Expected goals 1.27 to 1.16 · most likely 1-1 (13%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sun 1 Nov · 16:30UTC · Matchday 9

Liverpool v Arsenal

Expected goals 0.89 to 0.84 · most likely 0-0 (18%) · from 5 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Mon 2 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 9

Newcastle v Everton

Expected goals 0.82 to 1.36 · most likely 0-1 (15%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 20:00UTC · Matchday 10

Everton v Coventry

Expected goals 1.83 to 0.08 · most likely 1-0 (27%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 12:30UTC · Matchday 10

Leeds v Tottenham

Expected goals 1.52 to 0.26 · most likely 1-0 (26%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 10

Arsenal v Hull

Expected goals 1.01 to 0.63 · most likely 1-0 (20%) · from 6 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00UTC · Matchday 10

Fulham v Newcastle

Expected goals 1.37 to 1.89 · most likely 1-1 (10%) · from 6 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 17:30UTC · Matchday 10

Nott'm Forest v Man City

Expected goals 0.61 to 1.64 · most likely 0-1 (17%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 14:00UTC · Matchday 10

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

Expected goals 0.73 to 1.94 · most likely 0-1 (13%) · from 5 and 5 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 14:00UTC · Matchday 10

Sunderland v Chelsea

Expected goals 1.65 to 3.15 · most likely 1-3 (7%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 14:00UTC · Matchday 10

Ipswich v Bournemouth

Expected goals 2.47 to 1.47 · most likely 2-1 (9%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 14:00UTC · Matchday 10

Brighton v Brentford

Expected goals 2.28 to 1.05 · most likely 2-1 (10%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Sat 7 Nov · 16:30UTC · Matchday 10

Man United v Aston Villa

Expected goals 2.09 to 0.95 · most likely 2-0 (11%) · from 6 and 6 matches

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74.1%	25.9%
2.5	53.4%	46.6%
3.5	34.5%	65.5%
4.5	20.7%	79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58.6%	41.4%
1.5	37.9%	62.1%
2.5	17.2%	82.8%
3.5	6.9%	93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	48.1%	51.9%
9.5	44.2%	55.8%
10.5	36.5%	63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	96.2%	3.8%
1.5	88.5%	11.5%
2.5	75.0%	25.0%
3.5	53.8%	46.2%
4.5	38.5%	61.5%
5.5	21.2%	78.8%
6.5	7.7%	92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

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Read before kick-off

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